A Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research poll in the PA and Gaza conducted December 7-10, 2022, followed several major developments: Mahmoud Abbas formed a high judicial council under his chairmanship; a new reconciliation was reached in Algeria by the Arab terrorist factions; and Arab media reported cases of drowning of PA Arabs in the Mediterranean, on their way to freedom and prosperity in Europe.
And then there were the November 1 Knesset elections in Israel, with Likud and other right-wing parties forming a governing coalition under Benjamin Netanyahu; the UN is seeking the opinion of the International Court of Justice on the legality of the Israeli “occupation”; various armed terrorist groups such as the “Lions’ Den” received wide media coverage for attacking Jewish civilians; and in Qatar, World Cup reports featured numerous PLO flags and banners in solidarity with the “Palestinians.”
The survey’s findings for the last quarter of 2022 point to a limited change in the domestic balance of power favoring Hamas and centering in the PA. Chairman Abbas’s popularity dropped several percentage points, mostly in the PA.
Only one-quarter of the public thinks that the factional agreement in Algeria will lead to actual reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas, and the level of pessimism about the prospects for reunification exceeds 70%. The findings also show that the public views negatively Abbas’s decree forming a high council for the judiciary under his chairmanship since only one in five PA Arabs think it aims to strengthen the judiciary, while more than 70% think it is aimed at weakening the independence of the judiciary.
The survey shows a significant decline in support for the two-state solution, accompanied by a significant rise in those who think the solution is no longer feasible or possible due to settlement expansion.
But this change is not accompanied by an increase in those who support the one-state solution with Arabs and Jews enjoying equal rights. In fact, support for the one-state solution has also dropped. This reflects the hardening of public attitudes about compromise. This hardening can also be seen in the significant rise in support in the PA for a return to an armed intifada. The survey also shows a significant decrease in both the PA and the Gaza Strip of those who view positively Israeli-Arab confidence-building measures.
And more than 70% of the public support the idea of forming armed groups such as the “Lions’ Den,” and only one in ten says the PA has the right to arrest members of these groups or disarm them.
It is clear from the survey’s findings that the pro-Palestine scenes at the World Cup in Qatar have contributed to a restoration of the confidence of the PA Arabs in their cause and their right to fight Israel by all means. The vast majority of respondents say they have now regained much, or some, of the lost confidence in the Arab peoples in light of the solidarity with “Palestine” that was expressed by the fans during the games.
The findings show a strong association between the restoration of trust and attitudes regarding the two-state solution and the return to an armed intifada.
The total size of the survey’s sample was 1,200 adults, interviewed face-to-face in 120 randomly selected locations. The margin of error is +/-3%.
