A Paris prosecutor has sought a five-year prison sentence and a five-year ban from public office for nationalist leader Marine Le Pen in a trial where she and 24 others stand accused of embezzling EU funds.
On Friday, France’s Constitutional Court ruled that local politicians convicted of a crime can be immediately barred from office, potentially preventing Le Pen from running in the 2027 presidential race if found guilty.
Last Wednesday, the prosecutor requested a €300,000 ($324,585) fine, five years in prison, and an ineligibility sentence with provisional execution—meaning Le Pen’s ban from public office would take effect immediately.
Le Pen, her party (Rassemblement National), and 24 others—including party officials, employees, former lawmakers, and parliamentary assistants—are accused of misusing European Parliament funds to pay staff in France who were working for the party, formerly known as the National Front.
The Wall Street Journal’s Noemie Bisserbe and Stacy Meichtry noted that the key question facing France is whether the Paris tribunal—regardless of the facts of the case against Le Pen—should issue a ruling that could upend the nation’s political landscape.
Le Pen said in an interview on national TV: “It’s my political death that’s being demanded,” and described the proposed ban as “a very violent attack on democracy.”
If Marine Le Pen is convicted and banned from politics, her followers are likely to react with a mix of anger, defiance, and disappointment. Given her strong base of supporters, especially those who align with her nationalist political ideology, a conviction and ban would be seen as a significant blow. Here’s how her followers might react:
1. Anger and Distrust of the System: Many of her supporters would view the conviction as politically motivated or part of a broader campaign by the establishment to silence opposition. This could fuel further distrust of the political system, the judiciary, and the media, reinforcing the narrative that elites are trying to suppress the voices of the people who support her.
2. Defiance: Her followers might rally around her even more strongly, organizing protests or demonstrations in her support. They could also express their anger through social media campaigns and public statements, framing her as a martyr for the cause of French nationalism and sovereignty.
3. Reinforced Support for Nationalism: The conviction could galvanize her supporters’ commitment to the nationalist, anti-immigrant, and Eurosceptic values she champions. Some might feel that the system is attempting to silence their movement, which could lead to an increase in radicalization among some fringe elements of her base.
4. Disappointment and a Sense of Loss: While many will react with anger, some of her supporters may feel disillusioned or disappointed, especially if they believed in her leadership or were hoping for a shift in French politics that reflected their views. This could lead to a temporary decline in her support base as people reconsider their political loyalties.
5. Potential Shift to Other Far-Right Figures: If Le Pen is banned from politics, some of her followers might shift their allegiance to other far-right figures or parties, like Éric Zemmour or others who share similar ideological stances. These figures might present themselves as the natural successors to her brand of politics.
THE WINDS OF MAY 1968
There’s a lot to be learned about the future of the nationalist right in France from the failure of the 1968 student revolt in Paris, which culminated in the May 1968 protests, which had a significant impact on both French society and the political landscape. Though the movement did not achieve its immediate goals, the reaction to its failure was complex, varying among different groups in France. Here’s how different sectors reacted:
Paris – social movements of May 1968
Photo: Guy Le Querrec pic.twitter.com/Zdkxrp7DQm
— Princeالــــ (@TamerPrince77) March 23, 2024
1. Political Establishment and De Gaulle’s Government
– Relief and Consolidation of Power: President Charles de Gaulle and his government initially faced uncertainty and significant challenges during the unrest. However, after the protests fizzled out and the workers’ strikes were resolved, the government managed to regain control. The political establishment, particularly de Gaulle, took the protests as a warning but also as a sign of their ability to maintain order in the country.
– De Gaulle’s Re-election: After the turmoil, de Gaulle called for new parliamentary elections in June 1968. The response from the electorate was largely in favor of the established government, with de Gaulle’s allies winning a resounding victory. This result can be seen as a reaction of support for the status quo and a rejection of the more radical elements represented by the protests.
2. Students and Left-Wing Activists
– Disillusionment and Reflection: Many students and left-wing activists were initially disillusioned by the failure of their revolt to bring about immediate change. The protests were marked by clashes with the police, radical demands for social and political transformation, and a sense of revolutionary energy. When the movement collapsed, some felt a deep sense of loss, but there was also a period of reflection.
– Long-Term Influence: Despite the failure, the May 1968 protests had a lasting influence on French politics and culture. The student movement was not entirely defeated; rather, its ideals of freedom, anti-authoritarianism, and social change would inspire future generations of activists, including those in the feminist and environmental movements. It also shifted cultural norms in France, challenging the rigid structures of authority, education, and society.
1968 May 11 Afternoon on Rue Gay-Lussac, Paris pic.twitter.com/s7SWBccfAa
— The French History Podcast ?? (@FrenchHist) March 16, 2023
3. Labor Unions and Workers
– Initial Support but Disagreement on Tactics: The labor strikes, which were in solidarity with the students, played a major role in escalating the protests. However, the labor unions and the workers’ movement had a more pragmatic approach to their demands, seeking higher wages and better working conditions rather than radical social transformation. After the failure of the revolt, union leaders focused on negotiating with the government to secure their demands, which ultimately led to the Grenelle Agreements in May 1968. These agreements resulted in significant wage increases and improved worker conditions, which mollified some of the discontent but also highlighted the divide between the radical student movement and the more moderate workers’ demands.
4. The General Public
– Mixed Reactions: While many students and intellectuals supported the revolt, the general public had mixed feelings. Some sympathized with the students’ demands for greater freedom and social reform, but others saw the protests as disruptive and extreme. The image of students clashing with the police and bringing the country to a standstill was controversial. By the end of the protests, many in the public had returned to supporting the traditional political order, feeling that the chaos was unjustified.
5. Cultural and Intellectual Response
– Intellectual Reflection and Critique: The intellectual reaction to the failure of the revolt was marked by deep reflection and critique. Many left-wing intellectuals, philosophers, and writers saw the protests as a critical moment in the history of French thought. Although the movement failed to achieve concrete political change, it had a profound effect on the cultural and intellectual climate, sparking discussions about authority, individual freedom, consumerism, and the role of youth in shaping society.
– Theoretical Influence: Philosophers like Jean-Paul Sartre and Michel Foucault, as well as other intellectuals of the time, continued to discuss the importance of the protests and their theoretical implications for the future of society. The failure of the movement was not seen as a defeat but as a part of an ongoing struggle to challenge authority and transform society.
In the end, while the failure of the 1968 revolt was a setback for the radical left and students, its impact on French culture, politics, and social movements was profound and enduring. The ideals of May 1968, especially those related to individual freedom, anti-authoritarianism, and social justice, continued to influence political movements and activism in the years that followed.
