Sunday’s snap legislative elections in France have resulted in a divided parliament, with no single political bloc securing an outright majority. This outcome defies earlier forecasts and sets the stage for potential political instability.
Contrary to expectations, Marine Le Pen’s nationalist-right National Rally did not achieve the sweeping victory many had anticipated following their strong showing in the first round. Instead, the National Rally and its allies secured 142 seats, placing them third, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition, which initiated these elections just a month ago, came in second with 150 seats, and the left-wing alliance, New Popular Front, emerged as the largest bloc with 178 seats.
As in the first round, turnout, at 66.63%, was the highest since 1997.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 73, whose New Popular Front coalition’s projected 178 seats fall far short of the 289 seats needed to control the 577-seat National Assembly, is expected to form a government reminiscent of Israel’s Lapid-Bennett coalition government, with elements from the militant left all the way to the conservative right. But wait, there’s more:
Mélenchon holds strong views on international relations and global politics. He’s a vocal critic of the European Union, arguing that it has been compromised by neoliberal policies. During his 2012 presidential campaign, Mélenchon positioned himself against economic globalization, claiming it primarily benefits the financial sector and wealthy individuals at the expense of lower-income groups. He contends that international bodies like the EU diminish the democratic voice of the people, and advocates for renegotiating European treaties.
Mélenchon’s skepticism extends to NATO as well, which he sees as a threat to French sovereignty. He has consistently called for France’s withdrawal from the alliance.
Regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Mélenchon firmly supports Palestinian statehood and is critical of Israel, describing it as a colonial state. Following the UK Labour Party’s defeat in the 2019 general election, he suggested that Israel’s Likud Party had influenced the results.
However, Mélenchon’s stance on Middle Eastern politics is not exactly one-sided. After the assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani, he condemned both the US and Iran as “warmongers.” He clarified that his criticism of the US doesn’t excuse Iran’s theocratic regime or its stated goal of destroying Israel.
In an interview on French television, Mélenchon emphasized that Iran’s declared intention to destroy Israel is “intolerable” and fuels regional tensions, encouraging extremism on all sides.
Deputies to France’s National Assembly are chosen through a two-round voting process. The 577 seats are filled by representatives elected from single-member districts for five-year terms. In the first round, a candidate wins outright by securing more than 50% of the valid votes cast, and at least 25% of total registered voters’ support. If no candidate meets these criteria, a runoff takes place that includes the top two candidates from the first round, and any other candidate who gained support from more than 12.5% of registered voters. The candidate with the most votes in this second round wins the seat.
In response to the National Rally’s huge electoral gains in the first round, a coalition emerged for the second round of voting spanning from the center-right to the far-left, united under the banner of a “Republican front.” This strategy manifested in several three-way contests across France. Candidates from various parties strategically withdrew their candidacies, urging their supporters to back the candidate best positioned to defeat the National Rally. This coordinated effort aimed to consolidate votes against Le Pen’s party.
The resulting tripartite split in parliament, with significant but not dominant representation from the left, center, and right, suggests that France is going to face challenges in forming a stable government and passing legislation. The lack of a clear majority for any group could necessitate complex negotiations and potential compromises to govern effectively.
But a Mélenchon-led broad coalition will not be tested only in the Assembly but also on the Streets of France’s main cities. Expect Islamic rallies to increase and also expect tensions between the values of the governing extreme-left and those of the reactionary Muslims to take the country into months of turmoil.
Add to the mix the upcoming Paris Summer Olympics, stir vigorously, and watch the flames roar.
