(JNi.media) IDF COS Gadi Eizenkot believes it would be impossible to defeat the Islamic State (ISIS) with an offensive that relies strictly on air power. President Barack Obama said earlier this week that attacks against ISIS will continue mostly from the air. Obama hinted that he would not send ground troops to Syria or Iraq, and argued that the allies can defeat ISIS by using only limited means.
Eizenkot told Ha’aretz that the key to ending the fighting in Syria and reaching a political solution lies in cooperation between the US and Russia, but estimated that reaching this kind of cooperation may take a few more years. In Eizenkot’s opinion, there zero chances that the pro-Assad Shiite axis would achieve complete victory in Syria. Such a victory would require committing large scale ground troops on a level that neither Iran, nor Hezbollah or even Russia are prepared to make available to the Assad regime. In late September Iran launched a Revolutionary Guards force of 2,000 into Syria, in cooperation with Russia, in a ground operation in northern Syria as support for the Russian air offensive. But since then the Iranians have suffered several casualties, several senior commanders and a corps commander were killed, and General Qasem Soleimani was apparently wounded in battle.
Israel recognizes an increasing sensitivity to the losses on the part of Iran and Hezbollah. Hezbollah casualties since the summer of 2012, when they began their direct involvement in the civil war in Syria, are at least 1,300 killed and 5,000 wounded. This is a high proportion for an organization that’s likely not larger than 30 thousand members. Yet, despite the extensive Russian involvement since September and the Hezbollah and Iranian sacrifices, there have been no large ground successes in the fight against the rebels. The Assad regime today controls only about 15 to 20 percent of the original territory of Syria.
In a reversal of his predecessors at the helm of the security apparatus, the Chief of Staff believes that a victory for ISIS in the war in Syria is a slightly worse alternative for Israel than the success of the Assad regime, despite the fact that the Syrian dictator is supported by Iran and Hezbollah, Israel’s biggest enemies. Eizenkot explains that Israel is better able to defeat an organized enemy like Iran and Hezbollah, compared with the difficulty in detecting and deterring an adversary like ISIS, should it gain control over most of the territory of Syria.
On the other hand, Eizenkot trusts the ability of the Egyptian military to eventually thwart the ISIS affiliates in the Sinai, especially since those groups are only estimated to be about 700 men strong.