“By containing Hamas through the enforcement of a blockade, Israel hoped the people of Gaza would overthrow Hamas,” Sachs said. But despite being financially weakened and internationally isolated, Hamas has proved resourceful, and Israel “should have no illusions that Hamas will disappear anytime soon,” said the Brookings analyst.
Ganor believes this summer’s conflict was a historic opportunity for Israel to defeat Hamas without the involvement of Hizbullah and the tacit support of Arab nations. This would have only been possible with a ground operation that led to the takeover of large territories – not necessarily the whole Gaza Strip, but large parts of it.
Operation Protective Edge, said Ganor, presented “a collection of situations that has not existed before and I’m not sure will be [there for Israel] in the future.”
The vacuum resulting from a defeat of Hamas would not necessarily be filled with groups such as Islamic State. Sachs is in favor of bringing Mahmoud Abbas’s Palestinian Authority back to power in Gaza, as the PA has largely cooperated with Israel on policing the West Bank and thwarting terrorism there. Since Hamas is designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S., the EU, Israel, and Egypt, donor countries will only work with the PA in providing funding and materials to rebuild Gaza.
“One way to do that would be not to oppose so vociferously Palestinian unity, which would allow Fatah to have more of a stronghold in Gaza,” Sachs said.
This summer’s conflict also highlighted a shortcoming of the Iron Dome missile defense system. AFPC’s Berman said Israeli defense officials have told him the rockets shot by Hamas were harder than anticipated for the Iron Dome to intercept because they were poorly constructed and tilted side to side when flying, like Iraqi scuds during the first Gulf War.
This led to a decision to fast-track the production of David’s Sling, a new defense system designed to intercept larger, longer-range, and cruder rockets, as well as cruise missiles. David’s Sling is especially important with regard to Hizbullah, which has at least 100,000 rockets – 10 times as many as Hamas – including thousands of long-range missiles that carry up to a ton of warheads and are hidden in deep underground bunkers within Lebanon, according to IDF estimates.
“Hizbullah is a very capable organization, and whenever its finds itself free from the Syrian civil war, it will see Israel again as its prime target,” Sachs said.
For now, though, “the Israelis are trying to be very quiet with respect to Hizbullah because Hizbullah is fighting and dying in Syria, and when your enemy is doing something like that, you don’t want to distract him,” Berman said.
Meanwhile, Islamic State has exploded onto the scene in the Middle East through sheer terror as well as a shrewd military and political strategy. Forming out of the remnants of al Qaeda in Iraq, the terror group took advantage of the chaos of the Syrian civil war and political instability in Iraq to take over large swaths of territory, and began administering medieval-style Islamic justice to anyone who stood in their way.
“When they arrived at cities and villages [in Iraq], the military forces just fled and left their equipment there,” Ganor said.
None of the experts consulted by JNS believes Israel is a primary target for Islamic State at the moment.
“There’s a huge difference between an Islamic State flag being waved on the Temple Mount and an actual, operational cell that exists in the Gaza Strip. In Israel, you’re seeing the former but not the latter,” Berman said.
Nevertheless, there have been indications that Israel is interested in joining the 10-nation coalition against Islamic State, which is being led by the U.S.