Last Wednesday, I told you that the stalemate between Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc and Lapid’s left-wing will remain until we know how the Arabs voted. If Arab turnout is high, Netanyahu’s bloc would be down to 58-59 mandates; if it’s low, Netanyahu would be the next prime minister (Camille Fuchs’s Survey: Lapid 27, Smotrich-Ben Gvir 14, Likud 31, Shaked 2.2%). But on Friday, an Israel Hayom poll proved me wrong, suggesting Netanyahu will get 61 mandates regardless of the Arab vote.
Israel Hayom published an encouraging Maagar Mochot (brain trust) survey that included 1,201 respondents, with a 2.7% sampling error––in other words, a most reliable survey––that should send right-wing voters into their Shabbat sleep tonight with a smile on their faces. Here are the numbers:
Right-Wing Bloc
Likud 30 + Religious Zionism 15 + Shas 9 + United Torah Judaism 7 = 61
Left-Wing Bloc
Yesh Atid 25 + National Camp 11 + Labor 6 + Israel Beiteinu 5 + Meretz 4 = 51
Arab Parties
Ra’am 4 + Hadash-Ta’al 4 = 8
Ayelet Shaked received a measly 1.2% in this survey and still has time to call the whole thing off, get a nice beach chair and go to the beach to enjoy what’s left of Israel’s lovely but short fall season. Balad, the bad boys of Arab politics, are also shrinking, down to 1%.
So, first, it appears that a low turnout of Arab voters could sink one or both Arab parties that currently hold on to 4 mandates each. Likewise, Meretz may be terminated, as its voters prefer Labor, whose chances of survival appear better, or Gantz, or Lapid. Imagine, a Knesset without an extreme left-wing. Who’s Ben Gvir going to get into shouting matches with? Oh, never mind, he’ll find someone.
Speaking of Ben Gvir (and Smotrich), they appear to have broken the 12-mandate glass ceiling that hung above all national religious parties since the establishment of the state. With 15 mandates they are the third-largest party in the Knesset and the second-largest in the bloc. If all goes well, and the two leaders learn to work together, and their back-benchers learn to keep their mouths shut, and with God’s help, Israel could have its first real right-wing government, with Benjamin Netanyahu at the helm, but with both his hands held tightly by his patriotic partners.
According to former Labor minister Chaim Ramon, who serves as the political expert for a right-wing YouTube channel called Orot, we will know whether Netanyahu has accepted his fate of partnering with Ben Gvir and Smotrich for four years by his appointments to the important ministries: Defense, Finance, and Justice. If he appoints lackeys from within the Likud party, it would mean that he is planning to bring in Benny Gantz and Gideon Sa’ar a few months down the road, and will make his first appointments on the condition that they’d bow out when told to.
But if Netanyahu appoints independent Likud members with their own strong following in the party, or even Smotrich and Ben Gvir, to those key posts, it is highly unlikely that he’s planning to bring Gantz in – because he’d have nothing to give him.
Also, if Ben Gvir-Smotrich really do collect 15 mandates, they can block a Netanyahu shidduch with Gantz by threatening to walk and stick the PM with fewer than 61 mandates.
Now, mind you, the Israel Hayom survey is the only mainstream survey to predict the breaking of the stalemate between right and left, which is why I was so glad it involved more than 1,000 respondents. All the other surveys of the past week predicted the stalemate would continue, like this one:
Kan 11 News
Right-Wing Bloc
Likud 31 + Religious Zionism 14 + Shas 8 + United Torah Judaism 7 = 60
Left-Wing Block
Yesh Atid 24 + National Camp 11 + Labor 6 + Israel Beiteinu 6 + Meretz 5 = 52
Arab Parties
Ra’am 4 + Hadash Ta’al 4 = 8
This is it, folks, the next poll results you’ll read in this space will be Tuesday night, after the real ballots are cast. Shabbat Shalom.
