The trend, according to the most recent public opinion poll published by Maariv Friday morning, 18 days ahead of the November 1 election, shows Likud dropping down ever closer to its current power in the 24th Knesset – 30 mandates (down from 36 in the 23rd Knesset) – while the right-wing bloc maintains its power around 60 mandates.
Also: the Maariv poll gave Ayelet Shaked 3% of the vote, just shy of the 3.25% vote threshold. With almost three weeks to go, and with a considerably powerful new partner––Nitsana Darshan-Leitner, founder of the Shurat HaDin right-wing lawfare NGO––Shaked now looks at least promising for picking 4 Knesset seats in November.
If you’re a right-winger, this is a cause for celebration, because it means that Likud Chairman Benjamin Netanyahu’s days of toying with his right-wing partners while having trysts with the left may be over. If this trend keeps––and in light of the continuous clashes with Arabs in Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria, it probably will––Bibi would be forced kicking and screaming into a novel kind of coalition government he hasn’t tried before, with right-wing, religious partners, who don’t kid around about their principles.
And despite being the largest party in the Knesset, Likud would be matched, seat for seat, by its coalition partners.
But before we go to Friday’s poll, on Thursday night, Channel 14 published a poll showing a different picture, with glowing results for Likud and a 62-mandate strong right-wing coalition government:
Right-wing bloc:
Likud 34 + Religious Zionism 12 + Shas 9 + United Torah Judaism 7 = 62
Left-wing bloc:
Yesh Atid 23 + National Camp 12 + Israeli Beiteinu 7 + Labor 4 + Meretz 4 = 50
Arab parties:
Hadash-Ta’al 4 + Ra’am 4 = 8
The Channel 14 poll gave HaBayit HaYehudi led by Ayelet Shaked only 2.1% of the vote.
Also: the Channel 14 poll was conducted by Direct Polls, among 537 respondents with a disturbingly high sampling error of 4.5%.
The Maariv poll was conducted by Panels Politics with 707 respondents, with a maximum sampling error of 3.7%. Here are the results, which match the trend in earlier recent polls:
Right-wing bloc:
Likud 32 + Religious Zionism 13 + Shas 8 + United Torah Judaism 7 = 60
However, should HaBayit HaYehudi led by Ayelet Shaked manage to squeeze out 4 mandates––partially at the expense of Likud and Religious Zionism, but also grabbing votes from Yesh Atid and the national Camp––the right-wing bloc could grow to 62, if not higher. Which means that all of you right-wing voters out there who have decided to ignore Shaked because supporting her would only waste good, right-wing votes – think again. And if you’re looking for a modern Orthodox representation that’s softer than Bezalel Smotrich but more religious than Likud, Shaked (who is not religious, funny enough) may be a viable option once again.
You’ll have to admit that she is one tenacious politician. Also: she was the best Justice Minister we’ve ever had, succeeding in one term to tame Israel’s activist Supreme Court with high-quality conservative appointments.
Left-wing bloc:
Yesh Atid 24 + National Camp 12 + Israel Beiteinu 6 + Labor 5 + Meretz 5 = 52
Arab parties:
Hadash-Ta’al 4 + Ra’am 4 = 8
The poll means that barring a Shaked success in breaking the vote threshold, PM Yair Lapid––relying on the two Arab parties––could deny Netanyahu a majority government, and force the country into a sixth election campaign, with him as caretaker PM through Passover of 2023. It’s not a great victory, but it means yet another opportunity for Lapid and the left to use their power to enhance their power.
I can’t believe I’m saying it, but in light of the Maariv poll, a vote for Shaked could deny the left its government. If the next few polls show the indefatigable Shaked pulling even more than 3%, it could mean a game-changer for many national-religious voters who would have voted for Religious Zionism despite their dislike for MK Itamar Ben Gvir, but now have a softer option.
