Fatah and Hamas on Tuesday night emerged a two-day meeting in Cairo with an agreement to hold legislative and presidential elections as scheduled in January by PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas.
Abbas was elected “President of the Palestinian National Authority” on January 9, 2005, for a four-year term—until January 9, 2009, but one thing led to another, Hamas kicked Fatah out of the Gaza Strip, killing many in the process, and since every reliable public opinion poll over the past 15 years was showing that a Hamas candidate was likely to replace Abbas, Fatah put a stop to the whole democracy thing.
The last elections for the last legitimate “Palestinian Legislative Council” were held on January 26, 2006, also a very long time ago. There have been, however, democratic elections in the different municipalities, which kind of proves the point that the only real political units in the Arab population are local, and the claimed “Palestinian nationhood” has little staying power.
And then, in January this year, Abbas enacted a decree on holding legislative and presidential elections as well as National Council elections, in three phases: legislative elections will be held on May 22, 2021; presidential elections on July 31, 2021; and the Palestinian National Council elections on August 31, 2021.
There are several possible reasons for this decision by Abbas, who was a lad of 70 at the time of his election and is clearing 86 this year. The past four years under Donald Trump’s presidency have not been kind to Abba and the PLO. Arab countries are no longer feeling obligated to first solve the “inequities” of 1948 and 1967 in order to normalize relations with Israel, their strongest natural ally in the region against the forces of Islamist fanaticism.
The only major power on the planet Abbas can rely on to resuscitate the old and tired concept that nothing can move forward in Israeli-Arab relations before there’s a Palestinian State is the Democratic party. And Mahmoud Abbas is banking on the good old Kerry State Dept. hands in the Middle East to take over the good old “peace process,” and bring back the winning formula whereby the PLO receives billions in support while Israel is pushed into concessions that would endanger its very existence.
To that end, Abbas needs the legitimacy that comes from legitimate elections, although between now and July 31 a lot can happen to delete the election with Tony Blinken’s State Department’s blessings. There are the threats of war from Hezbollah, Iranian proxy militias in Yemen arming themselves with ballistic cruise missiles that can reach Tel Aviv, a renewed knife and Molotov cocktail Intifada in Judea and Samaria, and, of course, the regular summertime feature: incendiary balloons from Gaza.
Nevertheless, on Tuesday, in Cairo, Hamas and Fatah said in their final statement that they would “abide by the timetable set by the decree on legislative and presidential elections, with emphasis on holding them in Jerusalem, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip without exception, and pledging to respect and accept their results.”
Ah, yes, there’s the eastern Jerusalem vote on which both Hamas and Fatah insist: they want to place voting stations in the part of Israel’s sovereign territory which they claim for the capital of their future state. Israel will refuse, naturally (unless the next PM comes from Meretz or Labor) – and this refusal could be used as the excuse not to hold the elections.
Israel has already suggested that eastern Jerusalem residents who are citizens of the Palestinian Authority are free to acquire written ballots which they can send in from any post office, anywhere in Israel. But, naturally, this is not about facilitating the vote, this is entirely about forcing Israel’s hand to wither, as in Psalm 137:5 – “If I forget you, O Jerusalem, let my right hand wither.”
Hamas and Fatah also agreed that “uniformed Palestinian police, and no one else in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, will secure the polling stations, and their presence will be in accordance with the law.” Does this mean that Hamas members will be recruited by the PA police and be given firearms? Yes, the plot thickens.
The two rival factions also agreed to “allow freedom of expression and the immediate release of all detainees held on the basis of their factions or for reasons of freedom of opinion, guaranteeing the right of political and national work for all Palestinian factions in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, stopping prosecuting people for their political affiliation or opinion, in order to provide an appropriate environment for free and fair elections.”
There’s no telling how the above paragraph will be implemented in the reality of a fierce rivalry between the pro-Hamas southern part of the PA and the Fatah troops in the north. Time will tell, but if you’re betting on this one, I would rely on 15 years of history in the territories over two days of negotiations in Cairo.