Israel has developed plans for a series of escalating measures to increase pressure on Hamas, following the breakdown of talks to extend a seven-week cease-fire, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday. These steps could lead to a resumption of hostilities in the ongoing 16-month war in Gaza.
The actions began more than a week ago, with Israel blocking the entry of goods and supplies into Gaza. Further measures under consideration include cutting off electricity and water, according to Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who mentioned that the plans were discussed in a cabinet meeting.
If these measures fail, Israel may escalate by launching airstrikes and tactical raids on Hamas targets, the WSJ reported, citing an Israeli security analyst familiar with the plans. This next phase could involve displacing the hundreds of thousands of Gaza residents who have returned to northern Gaza during the ceasefire.
Eventually, Israel could re-invade Gaza with significantly greater military force than it has used in the conflict so far. The goal would be to secure and hold territory, while systematically dismantling the remnants of Hamas.
According to Ynet, on his first day in office, Maj. Gen. Eyal Zamir, the new IDF Chief of Staff, approved attack plans for the Southern Command in preparation for a potential resumption of fighting with Hamas. This seems increasingly likely, according to Ynet, as Hamas is reportedly preparing for a campaign during the ceasefire. Once these actions are initiated, various estimates suggest that the situation will be difficult to contain or halt.
The IDF has made it clear to Israel’s political leadership that any renewed offensive in Gaza would come with significant limitations. These restrictions would not only involve the number of forces deployed but also include areas where the IDF would be unable to operate for fear of hostages being present. Last month, several IDF divisions, including reserve brigades, were prepared for a ground attack in Gaza, to be supported by powerful airstrikes from the Air Force.
On Friday, an IAF aircraft targeted terrorists who had planted an explosive device near IDF forces in the northern Gaza Strip. In recent days, amid the fragile ceasefire and stalled hostage deal talks, the IDF has carried out multiple attacks on terrorists who approached their forces.
On his first day in office, the incoming Chief of Staff visited the Gaza Strip. During his visit to an outpost near Beit Hanoun, he entered the buffer zone and told the company commander of a surprise exercise, “You were attacked by Hamas, Go ahead and act.” Officers present noted that the outgoing Southern Command Major General, Yaron Finkelman, was taken by surprise.
The statement from the incoming Chief of Staff on Tuesday, indicating that Hamas has not yet been defeated—contrary to his predecessor Herzi Halevi’s earlier claims—has placed an obligation on the IDF to continue its ground combat operations throughout Gaza. These operations are expected to persist for years until Hamas is decisively defeated militarily.
In a conversation with the fighters in the field, Maj. Gen. Zamir stressed the need for constant readiness, vigilance, and practice. He told them, “You must constantly be prepared, constantly be alert, constantly be suspicious, constantly practice.”
Zamir reminded the soldiers, “If you look back, you will see the houses of Sderot; you are protecting the civilian residents there. You are our stopping line. In this sense, you have a great responsibility. I trust you, and I am sure you will carry out your service to the best of your ability. You have excellent commanders, we have excellent soldiers, and we will know how to meet all our missions to the best of our ability.”
The planning for the next phase in the war comes as Israel and Hamas have reached a critical point in negotiations, with the two sides presenting opposing positions on the core issues of the conflict, hindering efforts to continue talks. Israel demands the release of the hostages held by Hamas, a condition Hamas has linked to a permanent end to the fighting, something Israel refuses to accept. Israel also insists that Hamas relinquish power and disarm, which Hamas refuses to do.
As an interim measure, Israel has proposed extending the ceasefire for a month or so, contingent on Hamas continuing to release hostages. Israel has set a deadline of last Saturday for Hamas to comply. If the deadline is not met––and it hasn’t––Israel has warned that it will gradually escalate its pressure on Hamas, potentially leading to a return to full-scale war, the WSJ reported, citing Arab mediators.
