A new study by Israeli researchers has found that Israel’s national resilience has dropped sharply in the six months following the start of the October 7th war, data that has led the scientists to warn a continued decline could lead to a crisis in the public stance towards the state.
The findings indicated a sharp drop in the national resilience scores. Hope declined, as did the level of social cohesion. But much of the news was good: Personal resilience rose in the same period, as did morale, while the sense of danger declined along with a drop in stress symptoms.
Israel has not faced such a long war since 1948.
The findings of the continuing study carried out by Tel Aviv University and the Tel Hai Academic College suggest mixed trends: On the one hand, personal resilience and morale measures indicated that the public is becoming ‘accustomed’ to the situation, learning to live alongside the war.
But at the same time, on the national level, a sharp decline was identified in resilience, hope and social unity, indicating great disappointment with the way the war is progressing.
The researchers warned that a continued decline in national resilience can lead to a decrease in the general spirit of volunteerism. People may no longer volunteer for reserve duty and military service and will become less involved in the county’s advancement.
The researchers emphasize that this is a warning sign that should concern the authorities: if the public’s needs and expectations remain unmet, the ‘credit’ given to leaders now navigating the struggle will diminish significantly.
The findings of the study were presented at Tel Aviv University’s Annual Convention, Israel’s Future. Surveys were carried out at four points: the first was soon after the war broke out, the second about a month and a half later, the third in January 2024, and the fourth in April 2024, right after Iran’s missile attack on Israel.
The team of researchers included Prof. Shaul Kimhi and Prof. Bruria Adini from the Emergency and Disaster Management Department at Tel Aviv University, and Prof. Yohanan Eshel and Dr. Hadas Marciano from the Tel Hai Academic College.
The researchers give several possible reasons for the sharp decline in national resilience: First, the public is weary and discouraged because this war is much longer than previous ones. Furthermore, some voices in the political and military leaderships expressly state that the war/fighting will go on for a long time, and no one can predict when it will end.
Second, there is a very tangible threat that the war in northern Israel might turn into total war with Hezbollah. Vast areas along the border with Lebanon have been abandoned, and no one knows when the evacuees will be able to go back, or how many will in fact choose to return.
Third, a deep and growing rift divides Israeli society on major issues: can the current political leadership be trusted, or should new elections be held as soon as possible? The study’s findings once again point to this rift, which also affects national resilience. The burning situation is further exacerbated by the fact that 120 hostages, including women of different ages, elderly men, and even a small child and an infant, are still in the hands of Hamas.
“The war and its costs, as well as disappointment with its achievements so far, can account for the significant decline in Israel’s national resilience, the sharp drop in the public’s sense of unity, and the moderate decrease in hope – so critical for generating and preserving resilience,” the researchers concluded.
“The fact that people are getting somewhat used to the new situation, combined with a feeling that this is a ‘no choice war’ forced upon Israel, and requiring common efforts, can explain the rise in morale and decline in stress symptoms on the personal level. However, a continued decline in resilience might damage the country’s social fabric and sense of unity and cohesion.
“If Israeli society is to overcome the hardships and challenges that still lie ahead, both state institutions and civil society must act now to strengthen solidarity and enhance common denominators shared by all parts of the nation,” the researchers emphasized.
