Lebanon’s former President Michel Aoun warned in an interview with the Lebanese Al-Akhbar news outlet this week that an all-out war with Israel could end with terrible consequences for his country.
Aoun, whose term in office ended in 2022, expressed strong opposition to Lebanon’s conflict with Israel that began on October 8, 2023.
The conflict on Israel’s northern border began Lebanon’s Iranian proxy, Hezbollah, launching daily attacks on Israel to support Gaza’s Hamas terrorist organization – a fellow Iranian proxy – after it invaded the Jewish State on October 7, slaughtering 1,200 people and abducting 251 hostages. The terror group is still holding 107 people – at least 33 are no longer alive – as captives in Gaza, including four hostages from as far back as 2014.
Ongoing escalation in the conflict on Israel’s northern border is creating a growing likelihood of an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah, which has created a state-within-a-state in southern Lebanon in violation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701.
“Today, we are really living in a kind of third world war. A devastating war is raging in Europe and in our region, there is fire everywhere. Lebanon is in the middle of war today,” Aoun said, adding that he opposes Hezbollah’s current war against Israel.
“Lebanon is the smallest country in the region; we do not have common borders with Gaza, nor economic relations, nor a joint defense agreement, and neither the Lebanese state nor the Arab League decided to participate in this war.”
Aoun expressed support for US attempts to prevent an Israel from starting a ground war against Hezbollah to restore security for citizens in northern Israel.
“Their position so far is the same, so why should we give them an excuse by violating Resolution 1701?” he said. “My position stems from fear of losing to the Israelis and fear for the future of Lebanon.
“During the 2006 aggression, no one but me was with the resistance, and I worked as its media spokesperson despite all the threats and warnings,” he said. But there have been many changes since 2006, he noted.
“In 2006 America supported the war, but this time it brought its fleets to the region from the first day after October 7. Does the balance of power enable us to confront America?
“Last time, Israel attacked us, while this time we are the ones who started the battle and gave them a ‘handle’ on us,” he pointed out.
“My fear stems from the fact that this war seems to me to be a war with broad international cover. Note that despite the global sympathy at the popular level for the tragedy of the Palestinians in Gaza, none of the influential countries has condemned Israel and none of them has even threatened to downgrade relations with it. It seems as if everyone is with this war.”
A long-term supporter of Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah, Aoun said his relations with Hezbollah remain “calm,” adding that he has “confidence” in the terror army’s leader despite his concerns.
The Iranian proxy has become a “political party” in Lebanon, maintaining a significant presence in the parliament and even in the government cabinet, effectively vetoing any attempt to elect a leader who would threaten its territorial and political control.
No one has been elected to succeed Aoun despite more than a dozen parliamentary attempts to do so.
The political deadlock gripping the country is not only at the national level: even local elections have been postponed repeatedly. At least some of the deadlock is fueled by Iran’s control over the process through its proxy, Hezbollah.
The group’s political performance is correct, Aoun said, “but what about the intentions of the other side? Militarily, they are acting intelligently.
“I hope with all my heart that I have misjudged, and that the war will end with Lebanon within its current borders, because I have a real fear that the Israelis want to occupy the area south of the Litani [River] to establish a buffer zone,” he warned.
United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 mandates the “deployment of Lebanese forces to Southern Lebanon, parallel withdrawal of Israeli forces behind the Blue Line, strengthening the UN force (UNIFIL) to facilitate the entry of Lebanese Forces in the region and the establishment of a demilitarized zone between the Blue Line and the Litani River.” The resolution also imposes an arms embargo on Lebanon.
Hezbollah — and Lebanon — completely ignored the resolution, which has been consistently violated by the Iranian proxy since it was signed. The UN Interim Force in Lebanon, ostensibly intended to act as a peacekeeping force, opted not to enforce UN resolution 1701 rather than tangle with the Iranian proxy.
