According to a Panels Politics Institute poll published by Maariv on Friday, shows Yamina led by Ayelet Shaked well below the 3.25% vote threshold. Yamina crashes in this poll, to a low of 2.2%, compared to 2.6% in the previous poll by the same outfit. Meretz, after the retirement of Nitzan Horowitz from his post as chairman, receives 2.5% – compared to 2.1% in the previous poll.
However, when asked if their decision would be different should Derech Eretz party leaders Yoaz Hendel [Handel] and Zvi Hauser (who are currently perched at Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope party), respondents awarded Yamina four seats and completely changed the contention between the right and left blocs.
Initially, there were the results of Friday’s poll:
Likud – 36
Yesh Atid – 24
Blue & White – 13
Religious Zionism – 10
Shas – 8
United Torah Judaism – 7
Joint Arab List – 6
Labor – 6
Israel Beiteinu – 6
Ra’am – 4
Yamina – 0
Meretz – 0
The math shows that Likud Chairman Benjamin Netanyahu should be able to form a right-wing government with 61 seats: Likud 36 + Religious Zionism – 10 + Shas – 8 + United Torah Judaism – 7 = 61.
Yesh Atid Chairman Yair Lapid in that case has no path to victory, even with the Joint Arab List, which will never happen (we hope).
However, Yamina with Hendel and Hauser takes one seat from Blue & White, which drops to 12, one from Yesh Atid that gets only 23, and one from Religious Zionism, which ends up with 9.
Netanyahu then has only 60 guaranteed seats and would be forced to trade horses with Yamina for its four seats. It could mean that Yamina with its four seats could demand – and receive – three ministerial positions, most notably Justice for Shaked, her dream job.
To remind you, the elections are scheduled for November 1, more than three whole months away. Likud will have its primaries in August, as will Meretz, and Israeli voters will most likely shift back and forth many times.
The poll included 711 respondents, who constitute a representative sample of the adult population in the State of Israel aged 18 and over, 614 Jews and 97 Arabs. Data collection was done through the Panel4All web panel (a request to participate in the poll was sent to 4,621 registered members of the panel). The poll was conducted on July 6-7, 2022. The maximum sampling error is 4.2% – or, in other words, all of Yamina’s and Meretz’s votes.
