For the first time since the outbreak of the war, a Thursday News 14 and Direct Polls survey shows that were the elections held this week, Likud would be the largest party in Israel with 27 mandates, compared with only 26 for Benny Gantz’s National Union party, which is down by three mandates since DP’s previous survey.
The mandates are distributed as follows:
Center-Right:
Likud – 27 (currently 32)
Shas – 10 (11)
Otzma Yehudit – 9 (6)
United Torah Judaism – 7 (7)
Religious Zionism – 4 (7)
Total: 57 mandates
Center-Left:
National Union – 26 (12)
Yesh Atid – 12 (24)
Israel Beitenu – 11 (6)
Meretz – 4 (0)
Total: 53 mandates
Arabs:
Ra’am – 5 (5)
Hadash-Ta’al – 5 (5)
Total: 10 mandates
According to this poll, the center-left parties could form a coalition only if they invited both Arab parties in, which, given the national mood, is not a realistic expectation.
Meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu would be able to forge a coalition government only with Gantz’s National Union, which is also not very realistic given the mood on the left. But Netanyahu does have a path to forging a coalition with Gideon Sa’ar’s members of Gantz’s party. A coalition with Avigdor Liberman’s Israel Beiteinu would have been another option, but there may be too much bad blood between Netanyahu and Liberman.
And so, it appears that Israel is back to where it was before the November 2022 election, a virtual tie between left and right, and a gap that cannot be bridged.
In response to the question of who is more suitable for the job of prime minister, respondents gave Netanyahu 42%, Gantz 34%, and none of the above 24%.
When compared with Yair Lapid, Netanyahu is favored by 44% of respondents, Lapid by 28%, and none of the above also gets 28%.
On Whether Israel should negotiate with Hamas for the release of the hostages during the war, 48% said yes, but only while fighting continues; 39% said yes, even if it requires a temporary suspension of the fighting, and 13% said no negotiations should be conducted while the war is on.
The survey authors asked whether then-Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz was right in 2005 to withdraw the IDF from the Philadelphi Corridor (the 8.5-mile-long strip of land along Gaza’s border with Egypt). 75% said No, 15% did not have an opinion on the issue, and only 10% said Yes. This represents a huge turn in Israeli public opinion, the majority of which supported the withdrawal at the time of the Gush Katif expulsion.
The poll was conducted on January 25, 2024, using a digital system combined with a panel, among 713 sampled adults (18+) who are representative of the general population in Israel. The statistical sampling error is 3.7%, with a ± 95% probability.
