Dr. Ahmad Hleihel, Director of the Demography Division at the Central Bureau of Statistics, last week debunked the rumors about an unprecedented exodus from Israel in 2023.
The data that was presented by the mainstream media was alarming: 82,700 residents emigrated from Israel in 2023, as a result of the civil war over judicial reform, followed by the real war against Hamas. However, an analysis of the data raised suspicions.
The articles and interviews described Sabra families who, disillusioned with the government’s actions, decided to seek a better future abroad, as did promising doctors and academics who saw greater opportunities overseas. While it is undeniable that such individuals existed, the data remain unaffected by media campaigns.
In a lecture he now delivered at the annual conference of the Central Bureau of Statistics, Dr. Hleihel revealed the truth behind the data: About 60% of those who immigrated from Israel in 2023 were born abroad. Most of them (about 55%) immigrated to Israel in 2022-2023. The absolute majority of them, 94%, were born in the former Soviet Union.
Dr. Hleihel explained that data on departures from the country can only be analyzed with a one-year delay. This is because when an Israeli arrives at Ben Gurion Airport, it is unclear whether they are leaving for a short trip or for an extended stay. Similarly, when they return, it is difficult to determine whether they are a returning resident or just visiting. As a result, the current definition of a departure from the country is based on individuals who have spent at least one year since leaving Israel, including three consecutive months abroad and at least 275 days outside the country during that year. This is why data on those who left in 2023 is only now becoming available.
Makor Rishon journalist Ishay Shnerb pointed out that in 2022, following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in February of that year, the number of immigrants to Israel tripled. That year, before the judicial reform or the Netanyahu government, just over 55,000 residents left Israel, with 59% of them having been born abroad. The data for 2023 show a similar trend. A simple calculation reveals that of the 82,700 people who left Israel in 2023, only about 33,000 were native-born. For comparison, in 2022, around 23,000 immigrants left the country. This illustrates the true scale of the “emigration wave.”
Dr. Hleihel discussed the level of education among emigrants, comparing those leaving Israel in 2023 with those who left in 2019. To his surprise, he noted a decrease in the percentage of educated individuals among the emigrants.
“This is surprising, as all estimates predicted a significant brain drain,” he remarked. And when he focused on those aged 30-49, the gaps became even more pronounced. Among Israelis who left the country in the year of the Judicial reform and October 7, there was a 6% decrease in the number of individuals with a master’s degree or higher, compared to those who emigrated just a few years earlier.
The most surprising statistic, according to Dr. Hleihel, was the decline in the number of PhDs leaving the country: “Suddenly, fewer PhDs went abroad,” he said. In 2019, 644 PhD holders left Israel, but in 2023, that number dropped to just 429 – out of more than 82,000.
The absolute number of individuals leaving with bachelor’s and master’s degrees increased, reflecting the overall rise in emigration, but their relative proportion decreased. As Dr. Hleihel concluded, “This migration was probably also characterized by a very large wave of the less educated.”
