(Israel Hayom vis JNS) Satellite images indicating changes in Egyptian military deployment in the Sinai Peninsula have led security coordinators in Israeli border communities to paint a worrying picture of developments in the Land of the Nile.
Israeli political and security officials say that Egypt’s shifting military presence in Sinai is closely monitored and periodically approved by the prime minister in Jerusalem.
However, sources familiar with Israel-Egypt relations acknowledge that such approvals are always given retroactively, after Cairo has already turned these violations of the 1979 Israel-Egypt peace treaty into routine occurrences.
A source with knowledge of the situation told Israel Hayom: “The images from Egypt raised concerns, prompting us to conduct checks with IDF Intelligence and Southern Command. Indeed, there are violations, but surprisingly, the situation is better than it was in the past.”
Israeli soldiers stationed near the border note that, given it is a peaceful frontier, any action is taken with caution, with attention primarily focused on the smuggling routes from Sinai into Israel.
The IDF recently acknowledged the smuggling of long-range weapons into Israel via drones. Israeli assessments indicate that these weapons previously made their way from Sinai to the Hamas-held Gaza Strip.
However, with the IDF now deployed along the Philadelphi Corridor on Gaza’s border with Egypt, a new client has emerged, Bedouin, who transfer the weapons to criminal organizations and to Arabs in Judea and Samaria.
On the Israeli side, smugglers wait on fast-moving ATVs and disappear within seconds. Since this is a relatively new smuggling route, Israeli authorities are still working to track where the weapons are being funneled.
Concern over Egyptian military buildup
Ruth Wasserman Lande, a researcher at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy and a former deputy ambassador to Cairo and Israeli lawmaker, has also voiced concern over developments and statements emerging from Egypt.
“Over a year ago, on Oct. 8, [2023], Egyptian President Abdel el-Sisi made unusually harsh statements, saying that if Israel approached southern Gaza [in the war against Hamas], it would be grounds for war. I said back then that this does not bode well. This is very serious, and I wouldn’t dismiss it lightly,” she said.
“Over time, it has become evident that there is a significant increase in Egyptian military presence in the Sinai Peninsula, far beyond even the previous violations of the peace treaty that we had reluctantly accepted.”
Wasserman Lande warns: “Not only are we allowing the buildup of forces on the other side, but we are also permitting it without receiving anything in return, in a way that does not align with the diplomatic language of the Middle East.”
In recent days, the Egyptians’ rhetoric has also touched on their concerns over the possible implementation of U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan for relocating Gazans. El-Sisi has made clear in no uncertain terms that he will not allow this to happen, even postponing a planned visit to the White House as a declarative move.
“This was also what initially worried the Egyptians at the start of the war,” Wasserman Lande explained. “They view this as a potential cause for war. They understand that Hamas embeds itself within the civilian population, and they do not want that scenario spilling over into Egypt.
“They reacted strongly when Israel was about to enter Rafah [on May 6, 2024]. While they ultimately did not launch a war, they have begun acting as though they are preparing for one,” she said.
Regarding the likelihood of a conflict, Wasserman Lande said that war requires both capability and willingness: “Egypt has the capability, the roads, bridges, tunnels and fuel. The question is about their willingness. It may seem irrational because they know that Israel is militarily superior, especially now with strong U.S. support.
“However, there is a difference between willingness and motivation. Motivation can override rational considerations. This is where we often misread our adversaries, just as we underestimated Hamas’s readiness to act. There are things more important to them than life itself, what we see as logical, they see as national honor.”
Wasserman Lande concluded, “I believe there are those monitoring this situation closely, but given the multiple fronts, the pressure on the system, and Israel’s internal challenges, not enough attention is being paid to this possibility.”
Another former high-level Israeli diplomatic source interpreted the situation differently: “There are several actors, not necessarily official ones, who seem intent on spreading reports of Egypt’s military buildup in Sinai. There is a long-standing Israeli-Egyptian military coordination mechanism in place.
“It may be necessary to scrutinize these exceptions more closely, but that is the responsibility of Israel’s intelligence agencies, not the media. The media noise surrounding this issue is unhelpful and only fosters mutual hostility,” he said.
“A designated international force, the Multinational Force and Observers, is specifically tasked with overseeing Sinai’s demilitarization, and vast sums are allocated for its maintenance.
“Egypt lost valuable time over the past decade due to political upheaval, and now they are trying to compensate for it by focusing on national development. Would a war with Israel serve that goal? Certainly not,” he concluded.
Satellite images reveal tanks in Sinai
Lt. Col. (res.) Eliyahu Dekel, who has monitored Egypt’s adherence to the peace agreement since his military service immediately after the treaty was signed in 1979, continues to track the situation today.
Commenting on recent images from Egypt showing U.S.-built Abrams tanks in Sinai, he stated: “The presence of tanks near Israel’s border is a blatant violation of the peace agreement, which stipulates that most of Sinai should remain demilitarized.
“There is indisputable satellite evidence that showed 100 tanks in El-Arish even before the war,” Dekel said. “These tanks are entirely prohibited in the area. Violations have been ongoing for decades.
“Initially, there were supposed to be 22,000 soldiers in the western part of Sinai, but now the agreement has been completely eroded, with four times that number permanently stationed there.
“Sinai is supposed to be free of all military forces. If the latest images are verified, the concern isn’t just about forces in Sinai, the key issue is the type of tanks. The images show Abrams tanks, which are Egypt’s premier battle tanks, reserved for elite units,” he added.
“The question arises: What are these special forces doing in Sinai? In recent years, three new airfields have been built in Sinai, and massive tunnels have been dug, blatantly violating the peace treaty. The treaty allows for military camps for 47 battalions; currently, there are camps for 180 battalions, four times the permitted amount. These are ongoing processes,” Dekel said.
The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit responded: “IDF forces are deployed along the border to protect Israeli communities and are actively fulfilling that mission. During the war, defensive efforts were reinforced, and rules of engagement were adjusted to allow soldiers to respond effectively and offensively to any threat along the western border.
“The public is regularly updated on developments across all sectors, in accordance with censorship and operational security considerations. The IDF continues to operate in line with security needs while respecting the peace agreement,” the IDF said.
Originally published by Israel Hayom.
