(JNS) The considerable Egyptian military presence in the Sinai Peninsula and ongoing infrastructure work has some observers in Israel alarmed.
Officially, the Israeli defense establishment says that coordination between the two militaries remains tight and contributes to regional stability. However, the concentration of forces in Sinai is not easily explained by previous justifications such as fighting ISIS, and raises the more troubling, seldom spoken, possibility that President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi and his army view Israel as a potential future adversary.
On Feb. 4, Kan News, citing the Beirut-based, Hezbollah-aligned Al Akhbar newspaper, said Egyptian sources revealed that Cairo “conveyed an explicit warning to Israel in the military coordination meetings that the continued stay of IDF forces in the Philadelphi Corridor [on Gaza’s border with Egypt] would be considered a violation of the Camp David [Peace] Agreement between Israel and Egypt, and that Egypt would not be obligated to the agreement in the ongoing coordination regarding the situation of its forces on the border.”
The same report stated that “the Egyptian sources emphasized that Egypt’s messages are based on the adherence of the Palestinian factions to the clauses of the ceasefire agreement, on Cairo’s refusal to create a new geographic reality, and on the Israeli claim that it is possible ‘to eliminate Hamas.’”
Israel’s defense establishment, for its part, pointed to longstanding cooperation mechanisms that remain in place despite the reports of tensions. Israeli defense sources have affirmed that security coordination between Cairo and Jerusalem was and remains tight, “as it has been for years,” adding that “the security coordination reflects the common security interest of both countries for regional stability and preserving national security.”
Egyptian troop deployments in Sinai grew over recent years, ostensibly to fight jihadist insurgents, but some observers in Israel have raised the possibility that such a substantial presence could become a strategic liability under changed circumstances.
Three airfields
Moshe Fuzaylov, a former Shin Bet intelligence officer who served in senior roles in the organization, including as a member of its Executive Directorate, told JNS on Wednesday, “Israel approved for Egypt on different occasions to bring forces into Sinai [in excess of those permitted in the peace treaty], and we are today with a massive order of battle of the Egyptian Army in Sinai.”
Fuzaylov argued that Israel’s initial permissions stemmed from concerns over terror elements in the area, yet the resulting Egyptian buildup went far beyond a limited anti-jihadist counter-insurgency mission.
“They built in Sinai three airfields; at least one airfield is for fighter jets. They built huge reserves of gasoline and diesel,” he said. He added that Egypt also built large storage tunnels in Sinai for strategic storage of military gear, and transport links that could enable large formations to arrive in Sinai within a few hours.
Fuzaylov expressed concern that Israel’s defense establishment is not aware of the threat, adding, “We already understand what happens when we are so calm.”
On Oct. 6, 2022, marking the anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, el-Sissi said in a Facebook post that the conflict remains “proof of the will and steadfastness of the Egyptians and their adherence to the sovereignty and dignity of the nation.”
“The glorious October War will remain a turning point in our contemporary history, in which our armed forces restored the nation’s honor and pride and erased the stain of occupation from its lands,” he continued.
On Oct. 11, 2018, during remarks to commemorate the 1973 war, el-Sissi stated, according to a paper published that same month by Haisam Hassanein, a former research fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “The battle didn’t end. In the past, the enemy was obvious. Now, it is not. Now, they are with us and inside us. They were able to create an enemy inside us that survives by killing us. And gets built by our destruction.”
The Egyptian president continued, “A big part of the challenge is building our awareness. What I consider the main enemy is incomplete awareness, or fake awareness. It requires us—not only on the level of intellectuals, thinkers, and the media, but more than that—to be fully aware of the reality we are in.”
According to Fuzaylov, “Egypt has no reason to prepare such systems and insert these forces, unless it assumes that Israel is its primary threat scenario.”
Trains for one purpose
Mariam Wahba, a research analyst at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told JNS on Thursday, “For months now, reports have circulated about a significant Egyptian military buildup in Sinai, particularly near Rafah [on the Gaza border]. This movement isn’t necessarily abnormal—Egypt has previously deployed tanks and armored vehicles to combat ISIS, but these actions typically occur with Israeli consent and a notification to the United States, neither of which has reportedly happened this time.”
She added, “Israel’s U.N. Ambassador Danny Danon recently raised concerns about this, saying that Egypt ‘trains for one purpose: war with Israel.’ If the reports are correct, it raises serious questions about Egypt’s intentions.
“The Egypt-Israel relationship has undoubtedly been strained by the war [against Hamas], but the enduring peace between the two nations has long served as a pillar of peace and stability in the region. As for the U.S.’s part in this, the White House should demand transparency from Cairo and press Egypt with the tough questions. This can serve as a key point of leverage for President Trump as he navigates a post-war plan for Gaza,” Wahba said.
Fuzaylov added that one of the factors that could have led President Donald Trump to announce on Tuesday an intention to create an American presence in Gaza is to create some sort of buffer between Egypt and Israel, and to signal to Cairo that the U.S. is now involved in the area.
“President Trump understood this threat, mainly after October 7, [2023],” Fuzaylov argued.
On Jan. 31, Israeli envoy to the U.N. Danon voiced his own reservations.
“They spend hundreds of millions of dollars on modern military equipment every year, yet they have no threats on their borders,” he said, in reference to Egypt, questioning the rationale behind these massive acquisitions. “Why do they need all these submarines and tanks?” he asked, before warning, “After October 7, this should raise alarm bells.
“We have learned our lesson. We must monitor Egypt closely and prepare for every scenario,” Danon said.
