Despite facing substantial economic hardships, Egypt is in the midst of significant military spending. The Israeli defense establishment identifies military activity in central Sinai, including logistical preparations and the construction of cement obstacles aimed at blocking Israeli armored vehicles.
Political officials in Jerusalem have voiced concern over Egypt’s unprecedented military buildup, including the construction of tunnels and bridges over the Suez Canal. These developments, they warn, could facilitate the rapid deployment of Egyptian forces into the Sinai Peninsula and potentially across the border with Israel.
Also, despite IDF reports to the contrary, Egypt maintains more than a dozen deep tunnels connecting Rafah in the Gaza Strip and points deep in the Sinai Peninsula – which have not been demolished yet. The above, and many other military boosts are in clear violation of the restrictions outlined in the Camp David Accords and the subject of heated debates between Israeli and Egyptian security officials.
Israel Defense noted that “Despite shared strategic interests and numerous reasons to avoid military confrontation, tensions between Egypt and Israel could potentially escalate into conflict—whether by miscalculation, accident, or unforeseen circumstances. As a result, Israeli military officials stress that the IDF must remain prepared for the possibility of a clash with Egypt, even if neither side actively seeks one.”
According to Middle East senior analyst Yoni Ben Menachem, Israel played a direct role in supporting the Egyptian military’s campaign against ISIS in the Sinai, offering drone assistance and intelligence on militant hideouts. Now officials in Jerusalem are complaining that Egypt has shown a lack of gratitude, despite Israel having made an exceptional allowance by permitting Egypt to deploy significant military forces in the Sinai to combat ISIS.
Israel’s former ambassador to Cairo from 2016 to 2019, David Guvrin, warned in a December 23 interview with Ynet that “Israel must address the capabilities Egypt is building, and as we learned on October 7, not rely on the interpretation of its intentions and interests, which can easily change.”
Guvrin reiterated that “Egypt is investing huge sums in military buildup despite the fact that no country threatens it and despite its difficult economic situation. At the same time, Egypt is investing heavily in military and civilian infrastructure east of the canal in Sinai. … Intentions and interests can easily change with a change of regime, as happened in Egypt in 2012 with the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood.”
Last October 6, Egypt marked as it has done every year since 1973, the anniversary of the “6th of October War Victory,” hailing the occasion as a defining moment in the nation’s history, a symbol of its pride and dignity.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi announced on that occasion: “On this very day, Egyptian military officers and their leaders wrote the most heroic tales of sacrifice and selflessness to reclaim the holy land of Sinai. They set an exemplary precedent, supported by a magnificent people, in resilience and the achievement of victory. They confirmed that the unity between the people and the armed forces is the impregnable fortress that has protected the Egyptian state throughout its history.”
Al-Sisi had nothing to say about the fact that by the end of the 1973 war, Egypt’s 3rd Army was completely encircled by IDF forces who were prepared to annihilate it had US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger not put his foot down. The Egyptian president also avoided mentioning that the IDF crossed the Suez Canal and occupied a wide swath of land some 50 kilometers south of Cairo.
He also didn’t mention the peace accord with Israel, which was the only reason Egypt was able to reoccupy the Sinai, in exchange for cessation of the war.
As Ambassador Guvrin put it: “It is important to stress and understand that the official Egyptian position refuses to recognize the historical rights of the Jews in the Land of Israel and their right to establish a national home there. Egypt rejects the perception of Zionism as a legitimate national liberation movement. Zionism, in the eyes of the Egyptians, was and remains a colonialist movement that occupies the lands of the Palestinians and deprives them of their rights. Israel is a political entity born in sin. If in the past there was a question mark regarding Egyptian recognition of Israel within the 1967 borders, now, after October 7, 2023, there is a question mark regarding the de facto recognition of Israel even within the 1948 borders.”
Israel Defense suggested that “Under highly severe conditions, a conventional conflict between Israel and Egypt could potentially occur, even if limited in scope. Egypt is actively preparing its military for the possibility of war with Israel. For instance, in May of this year, Egypt finalized a deal to acquire 30 advanced French Rafale fighter jets. This acquisition aims to enhance Egypt’s capabilities in the event of a confrontation with the formidable Israeli Air Force.”
The website continued: “The Egyptian Air Force is relatively strong, boasting a fleet of over 200 F-16 fighter jets. Additionally, the IDF could find itself simultaneously engaged on multiple fronts, including confrontations with Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, or even Syria. Such engagements would strain Israel’s ability to concentrate its aerial power solely on Egypt.”
