For Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, last week’s experience was equivalent to the shock and failure suffered by the IDF on October 7, writes Amos Harel, possibly the last military commentator employed by Haaretz who doesn’t work for Hamas. Although very few innocent civilians were killed in last Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s beeper and radio attacks, since whoever did it made sure to direct its attacks strictly at Hezbollah members. Hamas deliberately sought to mass murder civilians. But much like Israel on Simchat Torah, Hezbollah discovered it was completely permeable to Israeli intelligence and exposed to systematic attack, contrary to its image in the eyes of its warriors.
And then, on Friday, two days after the catastrophic two-punch sabotage operation that left Hezbollah reeling and without its communications network, Ibrahim Aqil, a high-ranking Hezbollah leader with a $7 million bounty on his head for killing hundreds of Americans in 1983, convened a secret meeting with 15 elite officers in the sub-basement parking lot of a 9-story building in southern Beirut. They couldn’t send beeper messages, they couldn’t use their walkie-talkies, and they certainly couldn’t turn on their smartphones again. So, they figured two floors below the ground was safe enough.
It wasn’t. They all died. The IAF took down the building next door and then ran heavy bunker-busting bombs through the opening. It was a perfect execution that followed incredible intelligence. Folks in Lebanon don’t like Hezbollah very much, you see. For very little cash they’d sell you their beloved grandmother. A Hezbollah goon for even less.
Of the three attacks, this last one was the most devastating to Nasrallah, the most disastrous week in the 40-year history of the Iranian-backed terrorist organization. Israel not only succeeded in targeting the core of Hezbollah’s command and control systems but also inflicted a severe psychological impact, instilling fear throughout Lebanon and eroding the credibility of the country’s leading political and military entity.
Imagine living in a Mafia-controlled neighborhood, say Little Italy, and one day the biggest mobster gets a wedgie. In broad daylight.
Nasrallah is now forced to change the method of communication with his underlings every day after it became clear that all his networks had been infiltrated by Israeli intelligence. He cannot be sure that the activation of his strategic formations against Israel won’t expose him to further sabotage operations. He is as flustered, rattled, and frightened as all his Lebanese neighbors. Indeed, he is probably expecting to be assassinated, and not necessarily by the Israelis. One of his minions could do the job, too.
The Financial Times on Sunday quoted a person close to the terrorist group who said, “Hezbollah’s flank is exposed and they know it. I don’t think they’ve ever been in such a vulnerable position before and it’s sowing enormous fear and panic. Everyone is wondering at all times, ‘What does Israel have in store for us next?’”
IT’S LONELY UNDERGROUND
The demise of Aqil has left only two surviving members from the original seven-person jihad council, Hezbollah’s supreme military authority, as reported by sources close to the organization’s operations. Furthermore, the group suffered significant casualties when numerous fighters were injured by detonating communication devices – so far, 36 were reported dead, 500 were blinded, and more than 3,000 suffered serious injuries in the parts of their bodies where men traditionally hung their beepers.
Analysts suggest that Hezbollah may require a period of recovery before considering any major escalation in the attacks on Israel. The rocket attacks on northern Israel, including the Haifa area, are believed to be stemming from written orders, part of the protocol shared by Hezbollah terrorists in south Lebanon. No one ordered them in real-time.
That’s a reminder that despite last week’s setbacks, Hezbollah—widely recognized as Iran’s primary proxy and one of the most heavily armed non-state entities globally—maintains a formidable arsenal. This includes a vast stockpile of rockets, increasingly sophisticated precision-guided missiles, and a force numbering in the tens of thousands.
Nasrallah’s previous tit-for-tat policy in attacking Israel has pretty much gone bankrupt. He will likely see himself obliged to react strongly against targets in the center of Israel and the Haifa area. However, a red line that has not yet been crossed is aiming for the mass killing of Israeli civilians in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Nasrallah knows that the implication of such a move would probably be all-out war, and the inevitable end of his organization as Israel would level vast areas of Beirut as it has done in Gaza.
But then again, there’s no telling what thoughts go through a mega-terrorist sitting alone and humiliated in his bunker.
