US officials told ABC News overnight Thursday that Israel is not expected to carry out an attack against Iran until after Passover. According to the sources, Israel prepared for retaliatory strikes against Iran on Monday night and at least one other night this week – but aborted them.
British foreign secretary David Cameron told BBC on Wednesday, before meeting with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, “It is clear that the Israelis are making a decision to act. We hope that they do so in a way that does as little to escalate this as possible.”
This may not be such a good idea, seeing as a proportionate response would establish a new balance of power between Israel and Iran, whereby the two countries exchange drone and missile attacks in return for limited aerial attacks. Seeing as a single Iron Dome missile goes for around $30,000 and the cost of making an Iranian drone is kept at under $10,000, this would not be a win-win.
A massive Israeli response, on the other hand, taking out Iran’s electric supply, incinerating a few oil fields, and hitting Iran’s nine nuclear facilities, would go a long way to recover Israel’s lost deterrence.
According to Kan11 News, Israel was prepared with a retaliatory attack on Saturday night, April 13, which the entire Netanyahu cabinet supported, but then President Biden called PM Netanyahu and urged him not to attack.
The original plan apparently called for a massive attack on Iran, but as time went by, with Western heads of state and their foreign ministers weighing down on Israel and offering heavy sanctions against Iran in exchange for Israeli restraint, the moment for an immediate, punishing counter strike was missed.
Exactly like the missed moment on October 7 or 8, when the world would have approved of a massive attack on the Gaza Strip that would have incinerated the entire place.
According to Biden’s mouthpiece Barak Ravid on Axios, Netanyahu’s war cabinet on Monday gave the go-ahead to strike Iran, but then, according to one US official, Israeli officials notified the Biden administration, yada yada yada – the war cabinet decided to wait.
According to Ravid, the generals and former generals in the war cabinet are eager to attack, while Netanyahu and Aryeh Deri are more cautious.
How cautious? According to Axios, citing a source that was there, Netanyahu told two different foreign ministers that Israel would retaliate in a “thoughtful and calculated way.”
Meanwhile, the Chief Commander of Iran’s Army, Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi, warned on Wednesday that “Any aggression against Iran’s interests will be met with a strong and regret-inducing response.”
Eureka! This is the finest description of the needed Israeli response: it should be strong and regret-inducing.
