Iran has two major assets that should be blown off the face of the earth: its nuclear facilities which threaten Israel’s very existence; and its string of oil fields along the Persian Gulf without which its economy would go bust, possibly generating a popular rebellion. So, what do you know, on Monday night, the Washington Post reported, citing two officials familiar with the matter, that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reassured the Biden administration he would strike military rather than oil or nuclear facilities in Iran.
Last Wednesday, during their first phone call in more than seven weeks, a call Netanyahu had to extract from Biden by forbidding his defense minister to fly to DC otherwise, the prime minister indicated his intention to focus on military infrastructure in Iran, according to the Post. He then said in a statement that “We listen to the opinions of the United States, but we will make our final decisions based on our national interest.”
According to one US official, Netanyahu was a “more moderated place” in his call with Biden compared to his earlier stance and was rewarded by Uncle Joe with a robust missile defense system that would be installed in Israel, along with 100 US military personnel sometime next week, close enough to the November 5 elections that the outcome of an Israeli attack on Iran won’t have an impact on the vote.
By the way, the American Terminal High Altitude Area Defense batteries (THAAD) are rated at the same operational level as Israel’s Arrow 2 defense system, but lower than the Arrow 3.
According to an NBC News report on Sunday, US officials believe Israel has identified specific targets for its response to Iran’s attack, which they characterize as Iranian military and energy infrastructure, and there is no evidence suggesting Israel plans to strike nuclear facilities or conduct assassinations. However, those same US officials emphasized that Israel has yet to reach a conclusive decision regarding the timing and nature of its retaliatory actions.
A Pentagon spokeswoman confirmed that the Israeli strike on Iran would likely be carried out before the November 5 elections, because delaying the retaliation much longer would be interpreted by Iran as a sign of weakness. She also notes the attack “will be one in a series of responses.”
On Saturday night, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, and the two addressed general aspects of an Israeli response. However, it remains uncertain whether Gallant disclosed any specific details. Their discussion followed an Israeli Cabinet meeting on the retaliation, yet Gallant did not reveal the particular targets that were deliberated in that session.
NBC reiterated that US officials are encouraging the Israeli government to ensure that its response would be proportional, focusing on military objectives while steering clear of oil, gas, and nuclear facilities.
So, let’s see, an enemy state has just launched between 180 and 200 long-range cruise missiles at you, aimed at military bases as well as civilian centers – what should be your proportional response? Pour hellfire on 200 Iranian military bases and cities? Sounds about right.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the White House has prioritized the objective of constraining the Israeli counteroffensive in an effort to prevent the escalation of a broader conflict in the Middle East, which could potentially involve additional US military engagement, particularly with the presidential election approaching in less than a month.
It’s the infamous Obama “lead from behind” doctrine, and soon enough, it will bite this administration in the place from which they lead.
