Iran’s once daunting web of alliances is unraveling as key regional partners distance themselves from Tehran’s diminishing sphere of influence. The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has severed critical supply routes, weakening Iran’s strategic foothold in the region.
Perhaps most strikingly, Hezbollah, long considered Iran’s most loyal proxy, has signaled its willingness to pursue a permanent ceasefire with Israel, a dramatic shift that underscores Tehran’s waning clout. As these fractures deepen, Iran’s capacity to project power across the Middle East faces mounting challenges, threatening its long-held regional ambitions.
Point: the Butterfly Effect is a concept from chaos theory that suggests small changes in initial conditions can lead to vastly different outcomes in complex systems. The term comes from the idea that the flap of a butterfly’s wings in one part of the world could theoretically cause a tornado in another by triggering a chain of events through sensitive dependence on initial conditions.
BRRR IN IRAN
Let’s start with a joyous declaration issued on Sunday by IRNA and quoting Mostafa Rajabi Mashhadi, the head of Tavanir, Iran’s Power Generation, Transmission, and Distribution Company. Mashhadi was happy to announce that after 16 days of rolling blackouts in the capital Tehran and other big cities, as the government struggled to tackle the gas supply imbalance in the cold months, residential power outages are no longer being enforced, for now, thanks to improved fuel supply for power plants.
If the current trend of fuel supply continues, the power industry will be fully prepared to meet electricity demands, Mashhadi said. However, he also noted that in the event of reduced fuel deliveries, the country will need to implement consumption management plans in other sectors.
I looked up the temperature in Tehran in January and February. They run between 30- and 50 degrees Fahrenheit, give or take. It’s not Moscow or even New York, but if your central heating is out, you’ll need to cover up with many Persian rug layers at night.
State media reported on Sunday the closure of offices and schools in several provinces across Iran due to a cold snap and energy shortages. Now, Iran is an energy powerhouse, with the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). But the country has been forced to ration electricity in recent weeks due to shortages of gas and fuel to power its power plants.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called on citizens last Thursday to lower their heating “by two degrees” to save energy.
Imagine what goes through the head of an average Iranian who is sitting in the cold and is asked to consume a little less heat, after he’d just read online that his country’s leadership had lost between $50 billion and $100 billion on its support of President Assad’s Syria, and a similar amount on Hezbollah.
We may be hearing the flutter of the wings of the butterfly that was sent into the air by the Hamas murderers on October 7, 2023. Those butterfly wings were soon pushed forth by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who reminded us on Sunday:
“A year ago, I said something simple: We would change the face of the Middle East, and we are indeed doing so. Syria is not the same Syria. Lebanon is not the same Lebanon. Gaza is not the same Gaza. And the head of the axis, Iran, is not the same Iran; it has also felt the might of our arm.”
Iranian officials have dismissed claims that the fall of Bashar al-Assad would mark a strategic setback for Tehran, asserting that their influence in the region remains intact while attributing Syria’s collapse to the deposed president’s missteps.
THE VAMPIRES FROM TEHRAN
Top Iranian leaders, including Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Hossein Salami and Rasoul Sanaei-Rad, a senior official from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s ideological bureau, have underscored Iran’s enduring commitment to its regional goals. They have characterized Assad’s leadership failures as the primary factor behind Syria’s downfall.
Of course, they did. Never mind that since 2011, at least 23,000 Syrians have been killed, with Syrian military and Iranian security forces responsible for 87% of the deaths, according to estimates from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
Days after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, PM Netanyahu addressed the Iranian public in a video message, declaring that the fall of the Islamic Republic was imminent.
“Your oppressors spent billions supporting Assad in Syria, and only after 11 days of fighting, his regime collapsed into dust,” Netanyahu said in the latest installment of his outreach campaign aimed at Iranians.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dismissed assertions of Tehran’s diminished influence in the Middle East, characterizing such claims as hostile propaganda. In a defiant speech, Khamenei vowed that Syria could still be reclaimed despite the recent setbacks.
“The territories that have been seized in Syria will be liberated by the brave Syrian youth. Have no doubts that this will happen,” Khamenei said, exhibiting an aged vampire’s lust for young blood.
AND THEN THERE WASN’T RUSSIA
Despite avoiding outright economic collapse, Russia’s war in Ukraine and its military engagement in Syria have strained its economy, diverting national wealth toward sustaining its war efforts rather than fostering economic growth.
Western nations and their allies have imposed sweeping sanctions targeting Russia’s banking, energy, and military sectors, cutting off access to critical technologies and further constraining the country’s economic potential.
Russia has long relied on energy exports as an economic lifeline. However, Europe’s boycott of Russian oil and gas has disrupted this revenue stream. While Moscow has redirected some energy exports to China and India, it has been forced to sell at steep discounts. As a result, Russia is grappling with rising inflation and persistent shortages of essential goods.
Following the collapse of Assad’s regime, Russia is withdrawing its military forces from the front lines in northern Syria and positions in the Alawite Mountains, but will retain its two main bases in the country, Reuters reported on Sunday, citing four Syrian officials.
Satellite images from Friday revealed at least two Antonov AN-124s, among the world’s largest cargo planes, at the Hmeimim base with their nose cones open, seemingly preparing for loading. Reuters cited a Syrian security official stationed near the facility, who said at least one cargo plane departed for Libya on Saturday. Syrian military and security sources in contact with Russian officials told Reuters that Moscow is retreating from the front lines, withdrawing some heavy equipment, and relocating senior Syrian officers.
There’s another change the Middle East has undergone as per Netanyahu’s promise: Iran is all alone, and Russia cannot help.
BIBI AT THE HELM
The pejorative term “Bibist” is used by the Israeli left to describe Netanyahu loyalists who continue to support the PM even while acknowledging his shortcomings. I, for one, never voted for Bibi but recognized his strengths and accomplishments, even as he was stepping on my expectations. But since October 7, I have begun to admire the man’s resilience, determination, and inspiration, to the point where I am grateful to God for choosing him to lead our nation in this war.
I live in Ra’anana, you see, which is a 10-minute drive by a white Toyota pickup truck from Qalqilya, a terrorist enclave separated from us by Kfar Saba. As long as Bibi is in charge, I trust that there won’t be a Palestinian state east of Kfar Saba, and no Toyotas with armed murderers on my street. It’s not much to ask for.
Where does #ISIS / HTS get all those Toyotas?!
New Japanese #Nissan / #Toyota trucks, assembled in #USA, seem to be the vehicle of choice of Islamic terrorists. . . Supposedly the ‘enemy’ in the war on terror. . .
Can someone educate me, please?#Syria #ToyotaHilux #HTS pic.twitter.com/pbi6YPosE3— Rusy Kohli (@RusyKohli) December 15, 2024
This is why I completely uphold PM Netanyahu’s right to declaim the following:
“Over the course of several days, we have destroyed the capabilities that the Assad regime took decades to build. We have also struck the weapons supply routes through Syria to Hezbollah. Yesterday, Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Kassem said so openly: ‘Hezbollah has lost its military supply route through Syria.’ This is, of course, additional testimony to the severe blow with which we have struck the entire Iranian axis.
“However, I would like to make it clear and warn: we are committed to preventing the rearming of Hezbollah. This is a prolonged test for Israel, which we must meet, and which we will meet. I unequivocally declare to Hezbollah and to Iran: In order to prevent you from attacking us, we will continue to take action against you as necessary, in every arena and at all times.
“I discussed all of this last night with my friend, US President-elect Donald Trump. We had a very friendly, warm, and important discussion. We discussed the need to complete Israel’s victory and we spoke at length about the efforts we are making to free our hostages.
“We will continue to act relentlessly to return home all of our hostages, the living and the deceased. Let me add that the less we discuss this the better, and so, with G-d’s help, we will succeed.”
That’s all, folks, and please, do something about those butterflies.
