On October 1, Iran launched some 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, its largest assault to date, and the second since April 13. Neither attack succeeded in inflicting serious damage, and no Israeli was killed, thank God. The little Bedouin girl who was injured by an Iranian missile in April has recovered and left the hospital. But since that October 1 attack, Iran’s leadership has been fretting about the Israeli retaliation to the point where they passed over the denial and anger in the five stages of grief, straight to bargaining.
Leader?#Iran#AyatollahAliKhamenei #Palestine #Sinwar #hasannasrallah #Hezbollah pic.twitter.com/waxEh8FbaU
— junaidaliwani (@junaidaliwani) October 20, 2024
The New York Times on Thursday cited four Iranian officials, including two members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who disclosed that the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, instructed the military to develop various strategies in response to a potential Israeli assault, stressing that the extent of Iranian retaliation will be determined by the intensity of Israel’s actions.
Using the New York Times to bargain away their worst fears, those officials explained that should Israeli airstrikes result in extensive destruction and significant loss of life, Iran would retaliate. Conversely, if Israel confines its attacks to a limited number of military installations and storage facilities for missiles and drones, it is likely that Iran would refrain from taking any action.
The same officials revealed that Khamenei had threatened that an Iranian retaliation would be inevitable should Israel target oil and energy infrastructure and nuclear facilities, or carry out assassinations of high-ranking officials.
By which the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei means the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
This is why Iran’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations last Sunday denied claims surrounding a drone attack on the residence of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Caesarea, distancing itself from the incident and attributing full responsibility to Hezbollah.
The Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is well aware that Israel is capable of assassinating any living Iranian, no matter how far they burrow below the surface. It appears that unlike all the shahids he helped put in the ground over the years, Khamenei does not wish to claim his 72 virgins any time soon.
Four Iranian officials informed the New York Times that if Israel were to cause significant damage to Iran, the Islamic Republic would retaliate with a launch of 1,000 ballistic missiles, intensified assaults by Iranian proxy militant groups in the area, and disruptions to global energy supplies and shipping routes traversing the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, including actions by their allies, the Houthis.
MEMORIES
Iran has not encountered an external threat of this magnitude since the conclusion of the war with Iraq over thirty years ago. The Iran–Iraq War was waged between Iran and Iraq and lasted from September 1980 to August 1988. An estimated half million people were killed, with Iran bearing the larger share of casualties. The combined financial losses suffered by both combatants exceeded $1 trillion. It culminated in Iran’s acceptance of a ceasefire brokered by the United Nations Security Council.
Now you understand why Iran is shaking in its boots. Over the past 20 years, it has established two complementary efforts to annihilate the Jewish State: reaching military nuclear capability; and surrounding Israel wit a “Ring of Fire” with Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, and foreign militias in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
On the nuclear front, Iran appears to have won the day and will be able to launch, or at least threaten to launch a nuclear attack this year or next.
The fundamental tenet of the “Ring of Fire” is evident: Iran appears to be remote and seemingly disengaged, as it bears no direct accountability for the actions of these entities, and there is no means to substantiate claims that it is “the hand that rocks the cradle.” But that illusion broke down when Israel assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
A picture of Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei’s meeting on February 12, 2012 with martyred Palestinian resistance commander Yahya Sinwar. pic.twitter.com/YN76DSbuEf
— Iran’s military magazine (@iranmilitary_en) October 19, 2024
Meanwhile, the two strongest segments of the “Ring of Fire” – Hamas and Hezbollah – cannot deliver their protection against an Israeli attack on the home country.
Knowing how defenseless Iran is against aerial attacks, and how vulnerable its economy is to attacks on its only serious source of income, the oil fields, the Supreme Leader is having a panic attack.
