So, why hasn’t Iran avenged the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its territory last July 31?
Suleiman Maswadeh, Kan11’s Israeli Arab correspondent (he was born in the Muslim quarter of the Old City of Jerusalem) suggested Tuesday night that maybe the reason why the attack on Israel by Iran and its affiliates has not been carried out so far is because the joint preparation between Iran and Hezbollah regarding the attack has not yet been completed.
In other words, they haven’t attacked because they’re not sure when and how to attack. Should Iran attack first and be followed by Hezbollah? Should they attack together? Either way, both Shiite allies would receive a devastating response from Israel and, hopefully, from the US armada parked on Israel’s shore. But the keener question is when to attack Israel.
IT’S NOW OR LATER
Reuters reported Tuesday night, citing three senior Iranian officials, that “Only a ceasefire deal in Gaza stemming from hoped-for talks this week would hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its soil.”
One senior Iranian security official informed Reuters that if negotiations in Gaza break down or if Iran believes Israel is intentionally delaying the talks, Iran, along with Hezbollah, would initiate a direct attack.
Needless to say, the sources did not specify the timeframe Iran would permit for the talks to advance before taking action.
Iran’s strategy, it appears, is to threaten a hellfire attack unless Israel agrees to a deal that keeps Hamas, albeit deeply wounded, in charge of Gaza as the IDF pulls away.
- Iran is pushing for a ceasefire deal that would result in the IDF withdrawing from Gaza while keeping Hamas and Hezbollah in power.
- The Biden Administration is desperate to avoid a full-scale regional war, and pressures Netanyahu to agree to the deal.
- In Israel, the opposition, DM Yoav Gallant, and the IDF command have changed the goal of the war in Gaza from defeating Hamas to releasing the hostages (only a few of whom may still be alive).
- Only Netanyahu and his right-wing allies in Likud and the national religious parties are still committed to total victory over Hamas.
REVENGE A DISH BEST SERVED TEPID
Mehr News cited Khaled Qaddoumi, the representative of Hamas in Tehran, who said on Tuesday that Iran’s retaliation for Haniyeh’s death will be “definite and decisive,” and will be carried out at “a substantial level.”
“Experience has proven that the Zionist regime will press ahead with its crimes in case it does not receive an answer… The most important reason why a criminal like Netanyahu is forging ahead with his genocide is the absence of diplomatic pressures from the United States. He does not feel such strains,” Qaddoumi said.
It’s almost as if he gets his material from the same ad agency that works for Brothers in Arms.
How “definite and decisive” will Iran’s retaliation be? On Monday, Iran showcased its Mohajer-10 unmanned combat aerial vehicle at the Army 2024 International Military-Technical Forum in Patriot Park, outside Moscow. According to Iran’s defense ministry (and Wiki), the Mohajer-10 has an operational range of 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles) and a 24-hour flight endurance ability and can carry up to 300 kg of cargo, including munitions and electronic equipment.
Reuters cited two Iranian sources who said Iran “was considering sending a representative to the ceasefire talks. However, they said the representative would not directly attend the meetings but would engage in behind-the-scenes discussions ‘to maintain a line of diplomatic communication’ with the United States while negotiations proceed.”
The last time the Iranians maintained a line of communication with the Americans they got $100 billion in thawed funds and a nuclear deal that allowed them to turn their program on at will.
Tell me you’re not getting nervous when Biden is cozying up with the mullahs.
A senior Israeli official said in response to the Reuters report that if Iran’s presence at the talks is accepted by the mediators, Israel will not participate.
BLINKEN’S SWIFT INACTION
Vedant Patel, the State Department’s Principal Deputy Spokesperson, was asked on Tuesday about Secretary Antony Blinken’s trip to the Middle East, “What does he hope to achieve this time around that he was not able to achieve in the past eight trips?”
Patel responded that “the Secretary is laser-ly focused and engaged on the region through calls with his counterparts, through calls with other leaders. He has been working the phones for the past number of weeks, continuing to echo the same message, which is we are close to getting this ceasefire deal across the finish line, and it is vital for the release of the remaining hostages, including American citizens. It is vital for a surge in humanitarian assistance, which we believe will help alleviate the suffering that we’re seeing in Gaza, and it is vital – to help get this region out of this endless cycle of violence. He made that clear to a number of counterparts that he’s spoken to in the past few days, and I expect those kinds of conversations and diplomacy to continue.”
Meanwhile, Blinken has postponed his visit, so he’ll continue to laser-ly focus on things over the phone.
