Iran’s ability to produce the deadly ballistic missiles it has been firing at the State of Israel has been largely neutralized — for now — but the bad news is the Islamic Republic is already a nuclear power, despite Tehran’s protestations to the contrary.
That’s the assessment of retired Navy Commander Dr. Eyal Pinko, a senior research fellow at Bar Ilan University’s Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, who discussed this weekend’s Friday night-Saturday morning attack on Iran by some 100 Israeli aircraft, including refueling planes, F-35, F-16 and F-15 fighter jets at a briefing Sunday with the Jerusalem Press Club. (see below for the full bio)
Pinko told reporters that this weekend’s attack will set back Iran’s defensive capabilities by at least a year, perhaps even a year and a half or longer. Ditto for Tehran’s ability to produce long-range ballistic missiles.
Israel struck Iran in retaliation for Tehran’s October 1 barrage of more than 180 ballistic missiles, which the Islamic Republic claimed was carried out in response to the assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July, and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut in September.
This past April, Iran launched more than 320 explosive drones, cruise and ballistic missiles at the Jewish State.
Israel’s attack this weekend appears to have disabled Iran’s ability to defend itself from future attacks — at least for now — with strikes on missile production facilities as well as the “secret” Parchin missile and nuclear development facility near Tehran, where scientists produce solid rocket fuel for long-range missiles.
But did Israel succeed in destroying, or at least significantly delaying Iran’s “breakout” as a nuclear power? The issue may we be moot, Pinko cautioned.
“Two years ago, Iran had already made steps towards enrichment at the highest level of 90 percent [purity] of uranium, so from this aspect Iran [already] has higher enrichment materials. From the other part of this program, Iran has ballistic and cruise missiles that can go to Israel with a nuclear warhead, and we saw that in the last attacks. It was not with a nuclear warhead but the missiles’ capabilities were proven,” he warned.
“Last but not least, if you remember when [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu presented the operation in Iran a few years ago — what we called the ‘Folders Presentation’ — Netanyahu presented the weapons system of the nuclear capabilities, which is the system that enables the nuclear reaction. So if we take those three elements — the platform, the weapons system and the enrichment of the uranium — Iran has [already] had [nuclear weapons capability] at least three years.
Full Transcript of Netanyahu’s Iran’s Nuclear Exposé (video)
“Meanwhile Iran is enjoying playing that it doesn’t have those capabilities, because it lets Iran be in a better place in the diplomatic arena,” he said.
But Pinko was unequivocal about Iran having already reached “breakout” as a nuclear power.
“I do believe they have [nuclear weapons capability] and they’re just [downplaying] it in order to have better negotiations on sanctions and other things. It’s a matter of decision whether they will present it to the world or say, ‘It will take us a week and we will be there.’ That’s the reality as I see it.”
Dr. Pinko served as head of development programs and as senior systems engineer for weapons systems and missiles for more than 12 years, and for an additional six years he was unit commander in naval intelligence, where he focused on maritime terrorism, weapons proliferation and national security. He then served five years as head of an operational intelligence division at the Prime Minister’s Office. Following his retirement from the military in 2017, he became a senior consultant to Israeli national cyber directorate dealing with cyber threats against Israel, and currently serves as a senior researcher at Bar Ilan.
