Iran’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations on Wednesday promised that the Islamic Republic’s response to the Israeli assassination of Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran would come “at a time and in a manner that the Zionists don’t expect,” Mehr News reported. “Maybe when their eyes are on the sky and the radar screen, they are surprised from the ground, and maybe a combination of the two.”
According to the Iranian mission, the response must punish Israel for its violation of Iran’s national sovereignty, and strengthen Iran’s deterrence power. It should “bring the [Israel] deep remorse to prevent any future aggression.”
“Also, Iran’s response should avoid a possible negative impact on a possible Gaza ceasefire,” Iran’s mission to the UN added.
Former IRGC chief Mohsen Rezaei told CNN this week that “There has to be a ceasefire in Gaza soon,” and so, “the Iranian actions will be very calculated.”
Rezaei said, “We have investigated the possible repercussions. And we will not let Netanyahu, who is sinking in a swamp, save himself.”
Mehr’s reports these days betray a sense of both impatience and anxiety, as three weeks after the July 31 assassination, “nobody yet knows when and how Iran will be responding to Israel. Some are wondering whether Iran will be responding at all.”
In that regard, Mehr stated Wednesday in an unattributed article headlined, “Iran’s retaliation against Israel a matter of when, not if,” that “If we take a look at what Iranians have been saying to the media or their counterparts, the answer is yes. Multiple high-ranking Iranian officials have repeated the Leader of the Islamic Revolution’s vow to avenge Haniyeh’s blood.”
Iranian Mehdi Bakhtiari told Mehr on Tuesday: “I don’t think 20 days is enough to say Iran has abandoned retaliation. I believe there is no doubt that the response will be carried out. What we don’t know yet is how and when it will come.”
Bakhtiari explained that “there are numerous international, political, and military issues Iranians must ponder before punishing Israel. In our current situation, the most important one is perhaps the Arba’in pilgrimage.”
THE ARBA’IN PILGRIMAGE
Every year, on the twentieth of Safar, a.k.a. Arba’in (today is the seventeenth), millions of Shiite pilgrims flock to Karbala, Iraq, often arriving there on foot from the nearby city of Najaf. Arba’in marks forty days after the tenth of Muharram, known as Ashura. On this day in 61 AH (680 CE), Husayn was killed, alongside most of his relatives and his small entourage, in the Battle of Karbala against the army of the Umayyad Caliph Yazid ibn Mu’awiya. The battle followed Husayn’s refusal to pledge his allegiance to Yazid, who is often portrayed by Shiite historians as irreverent and immoral. In Shia Islam, Karbala symbolizes the eternal struggle between good and evil, the pinnacle of self-sacrifice, and the ultimate sabotage of Muhammad’s prophetic mission.
Starting a major war with Israel on Arbai’n 20 would be like attacking Israel on, say, Simchat Torah. How can anyone even consider it?
Moreover, Bakhtiari argued that “when it comes to Israel in 2024, the longer Iran takes, the more it can harvest favorable outcomes,” pointing out that “Israel is already in a dire economic situation after 10 months of fruitless war in Gaza. Having to stay on high alert out of fear for Iran’s response significantly exacerbates those economic woes.”
LIBERMAN IS FURIOUS
Curiously, Bakhtiari’s view of realities in Israel was embraced Wednesday morning by the man who many years ago promised to eliminate Haniyeh in 48 hours, Israel Beitenu Chairman Avigdor Liberman. Speaking on 103FM, Liberman announced:
“The Iranians succeeded in uniting all the war theaters. We must adopt a comprehensive plan here, and we must treat all the sectors together. The basis is Iran. We were dragged into the war of attrition, we played on the Iranians’ court, and they are exhausting us in the secondary arenas of Lebanon and Gaza.
“Without defeating Iran, there is no chance of winning – neither against Lebanon nor against Hamas, because they immediately recover. We have now seen that Hezbollah controls Lebanon, and the attacks are daily. Dozens of soldiers and civilians have been killed in the north, and hundreds have been injured. In my view, you must start from the head of the snake, the root, and the base of the axis of evil, Iran.
“How long can we continue the war of attrition? I know one thing: without overwhelming Iran and eliminating their nuclear program, the stranglehold they created will continue, and we will see the ring tighten.”
IT’S ABOUT PRESERVATION, STUPID
Danny Citrinowicz, a Research Fellow in the Iran Program at the Institute for National Security Studies, told Ynet on Tuesday that “the supreme goal of the Iranian regime is to preserve the regime.” Therefore, the activity of Iran’s proxies all over the region, Tehran’s diplomatic campaigns, and even its nuclear program are all meant to serve this goal.
Citrinowicz believes that “the more Israel deals with the Palestinians, Hamas, and even Hezbollah, the less it will deal with Iran in their view and this serves their purpose.”
