It’s been a rocky twelve days for Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, who on inauguration day, July 31, 2024, endured the first failure of his new administration, as someone, presumably the Israelis, sent visiting Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh to meet his maker and collect 72 virgins – in Tehran.
Pezeshkian, 70, comes from West Azerbaijan, an Iranian district not far from the independent former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan. Both his parents are Azerbaijani. Iran and Azerbaijan share the same history, religion, and culture. Both are majority-Shiite. The territory of what is now called the Republic of Azerbaijan was taken from Iran in the first half of the 19th century, during the Russo-Persian Wars. Azerbaijan was part of Iran until it became part of Russia. It’s no wonder things between the two countries are not calm.
Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, is also Azerbaijani, on his father’s side. He was born in the district of East Azerbaijan in Iran.
IDF SOLDIERS MUST LEAVE AZERBAIJAN AND GEORGIA
It doesn’t help matters that the Republic of Azerbaijan, as rich in oil deposit as Iran, is one of Israel’s biggest trading partners. According to a 2009 leaked US diplomatic cable, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev once compared his country’s relationship with Israel to an iceberg: “Nine-tenths of it is below the surface.”
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Israel accounts for roughly 70% of Azerbaijan’s arms imports. In 2023, Israel signed a deal to supply Azerbaijan with two satellites for $120 million, and the Barak MX missile interception system for $1.2 billion.
The Sitalchay military airbase is located in eastern Azerbaijan, near the Caspian Sea. It is about 70 miles from the capital Baku. It’s also about 500 miles by air from another capital, you guessed it, Tehran. Starting back in 2012, there have been rumors that the Israeli Air Force controls the airbase, and will use it for air strikes against Iran’s nuclear program. Azerbaijan denies the rumors. Iran knows they are true.
On Sunday night, fearing Iranian retaliation for Haniyeh’s assassination, the IDF issued a new order that categorically prohibits soldiers from staying in Georgia and Azerbaijan. All IDF soldiers who are on regular duty and staying in these two countries are required to return to Israel immediately.
ZARIF’S RESIGNATION
On Monday, former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif unexpectedly stepped down from his role in the newly formed government of President Masoud Pezeshkian. This surprising departure comes only days after Zarif’s appointment as a Deputy for Strategic Affairs in the Reformist administration.
The abrupt resignation has sent a shockwave through political circles, given that Zarif had assumed his new position less than two weeks ago. President Pezeshkian, who took office only 12 days ago, had brought Zarif into his cabinet as a key figure in shaping Iran’s strategic policies. This development adds a layer of uncertainty to the nascent administration’s trajectory, particularly in areas of foreign policy and strategic planning where Zarif’s expertise was expected to play a crucial role.
Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s most recognizable political figure and architect of the 2015 nuclear accord, briefly returned to the political forefront after a stint in academia. He played a pivotal role in the campaign that led to the election of reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian. However, Zarif’s tenure in the new administration was short-lived.
Sources close to the matter suggest that Zarif’s departure stems from profound dissatisfaction with President Pezeshkian’s cabinet selections, which reportedly disregarded Zarif’s recommendations. Additionally, unconfirmed reports indicate that hardline factions may have sought to oust Zarif through proposed legislation that would bar officials with Western connections from government service.
According to insiders, Zarif submitted his resignation on August 3. Following the public announcement of ministerial nominees, he informed President Pezeshkian on August 11 of his decision to return to his academic post at Tehran University.
This turn of events marks a significant shift in Iran’s political landscape, potentially impacting both domestic policy and international relations. Zarif’s departure from the administration could signal challenges ahead for Pezeshkian’s reformist agenda and Iran’s diplomatic approach on the global stage.
REVENGE IS IN THE AIR
On Sunday, Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) stated that the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran was a blatant violation of the United Nations Charter, and Israel will receive a response to this “foolish act” at the appropriate time.
Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naeeni, the IRGC’s spokesman, told reporters on Sunday that Haniyeh’s assassination was aimed at “chipping at the deterrence power of the resistance front.”
“The occupying regime of Israel wants to divert attention from its defeat in the quagmire of Gaza by assassinating resistance commanders,” Gen. Naeini said.
The Islamic Republic has vowed “a harsh response” to the brazen act of terrorism on its soil.
Barak Ravid reported early Monday, citing two sources with direct knowledge of the issue, that Israeli intelligence updated its assessment, suggesting that Iran is poised to attack Israel directly, within days.
Ravid cited another source who said Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Sunday told Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin the Iranian military preparations suggest Iran is getting ready for a large-scale attack.
On Sunday, the White House’s efforts to prevent war between Israel and Iran and Hezbollah hit a huge setback after Hamas rejected the invitation by the US, Qatar, and Egypt for a “now-or-never,” final round of negotiations over a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal that had been planned for Thursday.
The Americans were hoping that a significant breakthrough in Gaza would suspend Iran’s plans to attack Israel. As Iran’s mission to the UN put it last Friday: “We hope that our response will be timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential ceasefire.”
Buy lots of water. Stock lots of reading material in your bomb shelter. Bake muffins for your neighbors. We’re going to war.
