Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani on Wednesday reiterated Tehran’s threat “The cowardly and terrorist act of the helpless Zionist regime will not go unanswered, and at the right place and time, a decisive response will be given to the Zionist enemy.”
On Monday, Iran announced that Israel was responsible for the death of its senior military figure in Syria, Razi Mousavi, in a missile strike.
Mousavi was a key figure in the arms transfer mechanism set up by the Iranians through Syrian territory to reinforce Hezbollah. The Iranian announcement came amid rising concerns that the war in Gaza may intensify, potentially leading to a broader regional escalation.
Indeed, it appears that, after 82 days of fighting in which Israel has contained Iran-inspired attacks on its civilian areas by Hezbollah in south Lebanon and the Huthi militia in Yemen, the Jewish State is no longer afraid of the threat of escalation.
Amos Harel on Wednesday suggested in Haaretz that the assassination of a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards officer is one of the most significant developments in the war so far. Mousavi’s death was seen in the region as an Israeli signal that Iran will not be able to continue enjoying immunity while it initiates and finances terrorism through emissaries.
Naturally, the assassination also brings Israel closer to increasing its attacks against Hezbollah and even against the Iranians on the northern front.
General Mousavi was described as a close confidant of the late Qassim Suleimani, who was taken out by the US in an airstrike in Baghdad in 2020. Both men represented more than anyone else Iran’s investment in Hezbollah and its willingness to stop at nothing to bring about a victorious attack on Israel.
However, since October 7, while Iran has been openly supportive of Hamas and Hezbollah, it refrains from taking direct actions that would entangle it in the war. Now Israel has apparently decided that the Islamic Republic crossed a red line and from now on would suffer the consequences of its involvement.
This explains the intensity of Iran’s response, which is reminiscent of its reaction to the Suleimani assassination. Iranian Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the UN Amir Saeed Iravani on Tuesday sent a letter to Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and UNSC President Jose de la Gasca Lopezdomingue condemning the “heinous and cowardly measures of the Israeli regime,” and declaring that “Iran has its legitimate and inherent rights based on international law and the United Nations Charter for a decisive response at the appropriate time.”
It remains to be seen whether this will be a one-off response – more massive shooting on the northern border, and assassination attempts on an Israeli figure abroad (a bomb was detonated outside the Israeli embassy in New Delhi, and an Israeli official may have been targeted in a hit-and-run killing in Washington State over the weekend) – or will the Iranians chance a full and powerful Hezbollah attack with their support.
Until this week, Israel’s policy held that it’s better to deal with Hamas and the Gaza Strip first, and not get involved in a more extensive regional war. But this cautious approach may have been discarded with the assassination and the multi-front war may be around the corner.
