The Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar reported on Monday morning, that Iran-backed Shi’ite militias in Iraq are ceasing hostile activities against Israel. Meanwhile, the Lebanese Armed Forces began dismantling “Palestinian” terror bases in Lebanon. Underlying these developments are the domino effects of Israel’s victory over Hezbollah and Hamas, the strikes on the Houthis in Sana’a, Donald Trump’s return to Washington and the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime in Damascus.
In Iraq, the militias pledged to Prime Minister Shia Sudani they would stop launching missiles and drones at Israel. They also pledged to abstain from interfering in Syria. Arab reports also suggest the militias have withdrawn from positions along the Syria-Iraq.
This decision follows an Israeli warning to Iraq conveyed through the United Nations.
According to data assembled by the US-based Washington Institute, a Washington-based think tank, militias based in Iraq launched more than 40 attacks on Israel during the first two weeks of October. In comparison, the militias claimed responsibility for 35 attacks in September.
Although they launched their attacks in support of Gaza, Kazem Al-Fartousi, a spokesperson for the Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada Brigades told Al-Akhbar, “The operations of the factions against Israel were linked to Hezbollah’s operations in Lebanon. When a ceasefire was reached in Lebanon, the Iraqi factions also halted their operations.”
Meanwhile, the Lebanese army has begun deploying across southern Lebanon, including in the volatile Bekaa Valley. The army dismantled at least four bases belonging to “Palestinian” terrorist groups, including the Popular Front and Fatah Intifada. These bases, previously protected by Assad’s regime, were located near the Syria-Lebanon border. This marks the first such operation by Lebanese army against “Palestinian” terror groups.
These developments cannot be viewed in isolation.
The “Trump effect” has created a sense of urgency among regional actors as they brace for the policies of the incoming U.S. administration. Similarly, the “Syria effect” has reshaped alliances and exposed vulnerabilities within the Iranian axis as Sunni rebel groups have become emboldened by Syria’s collapse.
The Israeli military’s operational capabilities also play a role in these strategic recalibrations. The destruction of Syrian army assets, including radar and air defenses, opens new corridors for the Israeli Air Force to strike Iraq and Iran.
