Israel is moving closer to launching a ground war against Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy in Lebanon, as hostage release/ceasefire talks with Hamas appear to be reaching a dead end.
If a deal falls through, military action on Israel’s northern border is expected to intensify swiftly and likely without warning.
For months, community leaders and government officials have all said the situation in the north is not sustainable, with Hezbollah firmly entrenched along Israel’s border together with an arsenal containing more than 150,000 rockets, precision-guided missiles and attack drones.
According to Shin Bet intelligence data released this past Thursday, 1,307 rockets were fired at northern Israel in August alone, an average of more than 40 rockets daily. Nearly all were fired from Lebanon.
If one takes a look at the escalation of the monthly rocket fire figures since the start of this year (2024), it is easy to see that the war is intensifying in the north.
Israeli warplanes are flying nightly sorties to destroy the Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure in Lebanon, but it’s an endless task.
Last week Hezbollah fired nearly 100 rockets and attack drones per day at northern Israel; the terror group has fired more than 8,000 rockets at Israel since joining the October 7th Hamas war against Israel on October 8th.
More than 62,000 residents of northern Israel remain internal refugees 11 months later, having been evacuated for their own safety when the Iron Swords war was launched on October 7th by Hamas from Gaza. Hezbollah began its own attacks one day later, in support of its fellow Iranian proxy.
Between October 9, 2023 and August 6, 2024, Hezbollah launched more than 7,500 rockets and 187 explosive drones at Israel; of those, 1,000 were either misfired or landed in Lebanese and Syrian territory, wounding and killing their own people.
The 6,500 rockets that reached Israeli territory wreaked untold damage and stole the lives of 44 people, including 20 soldiers and 23 civilians (one citizen of India among them). Eight victims were children ages seven to 13, and four were ages 14 to 19. Another 258 were wounded in the attacks, including 119 civilians and 139 soldiers.
Rockets and explosive drone attacks fired by Hezbollah also often ignite fires upon landing, in addition to the destruction and damage to homes, community buildings, factories and agricultural infrastructure. In northern Israel, more than 769 fires have been started from such attacks, leading to the blackening of at least 138,000 acres of land in nature reserves, forests and farms.
Israel’s political-security cabinet was set to meet Sunday evening after a prior meeting this past Thursday night during which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly told defense establishment leaders to prepare for the probability of an extended war on all seven fronts — Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, the Palestinian Authority and Iran itself — given the low chances for a hostage release deal with Hamas.
IDF Chief of General Staff LTG Herzi Halevi warned Friday during a tour of the Golan Heights that the IDF is “very focused” on fighting Iran’s proxy in Lebanon.
The term “very focused” means the IDF is rehearsing ground war strategies with full brigade-level military exercises in the north; reservists are drilling on combat skills in areas of difficult terrain, such as that in southern Lebanon.
People on both sides of the border are waiting, and holding their breath.
The Jewish high holidays are approaching, and with them the first-year anniversary of the start of the October 7th war.
That anniversary brings with it outrage, agony, angst and despair of those who have lost loved ones, those whose loved ones are still in Gaza captivity, those who know someone who falls into those categories (which applies to nearly every Israeli), those who have lost their communities, their homes, their trust in the government and its ability to protect them, and their faith that this ongoing nightmare will end in a way that could allow them to regain their once-happy lives.
The tinderbox awaits.
