It appears to be the beginning of the end for the regime of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, and possibly the birth of an Islamist-run state north of Israel’s border.
“The Bashar al-Assad regime faces an existential threat given the widespread collapse of regime forces and lack of sufficient external backing to bolster these forces,” according to The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
“Various Syrian groups opposed to Assad, including local opposition in southwestern Syria, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led Fateh Mubin Operations Room, have each rapidly seized territory across Syria in the past 24 hours as Assad Regime forces have collapsed. Assad’s backers do not appear willing to bolster the Syrian Arab Army by rapidly deploying additional forces.”
Early Saturday evening, an attack was carried out by armed forces at a UN post in the southern Syrian area of Hader. The IDF teamed with UN forces to repel the attack.
“The IDF is deployed with reinforced forces in the Golan Heights area and will continue to operate in order to protect the State of Israel and its citizens,” the Israeli military said in a statement on Saturday night.
“The reinforcement of forces will enable the strengthening of defense in the area, and the preparation of forces for various scenarios in the sector.”
By that point, rebel forces led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) organization – formerly the Al Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra – had seized control over most of the suburb cities surrounding the Syrian capital of Damascus.
“Our forces have begun the final phase of encircling the capital,” HTS rebel commander Hassan Abdel Ghani told reporters.
On the group’s Telegram channel, HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa used his real name instead of his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, telling his forces to prepare to take the capital. “Damascus awaits you,” he said.
Syrian government forces had set up a security cordon around Damascus by Saturday night to fend off the advancing rebel forces, state media reported. However, the veracity of the report was suspect: state media also reported that President Bashar al-Assad was still in Damascus. Arab media and local sources maintain that Assad, his brother and their families have fled the country.
“The reconciliation factions have reached within a few kilometers of the gates of the capital, Damascus, following consecutive withdrawals of regime forces from Rif Dimashq,” the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported.
(“Reconciliation” is a reference to HTS-led forces.)
“It is expected that the remaining residents of the reconciliation areas on the outskirts of Damascus will rise up.”
The rebel forces were within 20 kilometers (12 miles) of Damascus by Saturday night, SOHR reported, adding that civilians from Jarmanah city in Damascus were out in a protest, chanting anti-regime slogans.
Jarmanah is home to Syrian Druze citizens who have protested several times against the regime, but were suppressed each time by regime forces.
Notables and elders in the city announced they had secured the safety of the city’s residents and formed guard groups at all intersections, roads and entrances to the city in order to maintain security and safety. They also established committees to organize the operation of bakeries, water pumps and the electricity network, SOHR reported.
“Regime forces and the 66th Brigade of the 4th Division withdrew with tanks toward Damascus from Al-Qalamoun area and the towns of Assal Al-Ward, Yabrud, Fleitah, Al-Nassryah and Al-Ruhaybah. Furthermore, regime forces withdrew from Artooz, 10 kilometers (6 miles) from Damascus, while the factions encircled the towns of Zakia, Khan Shayh and Sa’asa’a to free prisoners from the Military Security prison,” SOHR added.
HTS-led forces also captured the southern cities of Dara’a, Nawa, Quneitra (on the border with Israel in the Golan Heights) and multiple Damascus suburbs by Saturday night.
In addition, government forces ceded control over the entire Dara’a province, birthplace of the 2011 uprising that led to Syria’s decade-long civil war.
Hundreds of Syrian soldiers fled to Iraq via the Al-Qaim border crossing, according to the AFP news agency, citing an Iraqi security source.
Kurdish-led forces told reporters they had seized control over the eastern province of Deir ez-Zor.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for a “political solution to the conflict” during a call with his counterpart in Turkey, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.
Iran has begun to pull its forces from Syria, meanwhile, as did Russia, which has evacuated its embassy in Damascus. Both countries have propped up the Assad regime since 2011.
Syrian Rebels Circle Damascus, Suburbs Have Fallen
