“Many Kurds were convinced that Turkey was supporting the Islamic State; some even believe Turkey created the Islamic state as a way to tamp down Kurdish nationalism,” Koplow said. He added that “historically the AKP drew a lot of support from conservative and religious Kurdish voters,” but the AKP’s policy in Syria was “the number one reason the Kurdish HDP party got past the threshold in the recent election and will keep support going forward.”
According to Rhode, the election results have also caused a major transformation in Turkish society. Suddenly, all over Turkish social media, users are posting humiliating comments about AKP and Erdogan because the election results led them to lose “their fear of Erdogan [and] that they would be arrested and thrown in jail,” Rhode said.
When it comes to Turkey’s relationship with Israel, the once-close allies have had strained diplomatic relations since 2010, when a Turkish flotilla attempted to breach the blockade of Gaza, resulting in the deaths of nine Turkish militants who attacked Israeli soldiers as they boarded the ship Mavi Marmara.
“A year ago [Israel and Turkey] were close to signing an agreement to restore full relations, but Netanyahu balked on signing; he didn’t trust Erdogan and did not want to give him a diplomatic victory,” Koplow said. “At this point it really is a cold war between the two sides.”
Bilateral tensions have only increased as Erdogan and other AKP leaders regularly lambaste Israel on the national and international stage. During his campaign for president last year, Erdogan accused Israeli politicians of being “worse than Hitler”; said Israel had attempted genocide in Gaza; and touted anti-Semitic conspiracy theories.
“Whether [the bilateral tension] matters is another question, given that Turkish-Israeli bilateral trade is at its highest point ever, and it has only increased since the big [diplomatic] falling out in 2010,” Koplow said. “Economic relations are actually humming along quite nicely.”
Despite strained political relations, annual trade between Israel and Turkey stands at a robust $4 billion.
“Both Turkish and Israeli businesses would like their governments to put their agendas aside and resolve their differences,” said Koplow, who added that he doesn’t see that happening “as long as Erdogan and Netanyahu are in power.”
But Rhode is more optimistic, noting that he personally knows pro-American and pro-Israel officials “within the senior leadership of all three of the [non-AKP] parties.”
(JNS)