The 23rd Knesset disbanded Tuesday night after failing to pass a state budget for 2021 as required by law—of course, the Netanyahu government never submitted a budget passing in the first place—and Israel will go to a fourth election in two years on March 23, 2021, less than a week before the Passover seder. In the last few hours of its tenure, the Knesset plenum approved bills that allow for a continuing budget for 2021 even in the absence of a budget act, to allow the caretaker government the continued implementation of the economic safety net during the Corona crisis.
With that part out of the way, two major polls were published late Tuesday, taken when the Knesset’s dispersal was already an afterthought. Before we get to the main course, the new division of the next Knesset, here are two side dishes:
1. Kan11 asked respondents who was most to blame for the country being forced into its fourth election, and the “winner” was Caretaker Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with 43%, followed by Caretaker Defense Minister Benny Gantz with 18%.
2. News12 asked who is most fitting to be the next prime minister, here are the responses:
Benjamin Netanyahu 33%
Gideon Sa’ar 16%
Yair lapid 12%
Naftali Bennett 8%
Benny Gantz 4%
None of the above 18%
Don’t know 9%
Kan 11 asked respondents to choose only between Netanyahu and Sa’ar: Bibi received 39%, Sa’ar 36%. That does not bode well for Netanyahu.
Now the main course, who would Israeli voters choose for the 24th Knesset. The first column is from the Kan11 poll, the second from News 12, the third is each party’s current mandates:
Likud 28 29 (36)
New Hope (Sa’ar) 20 16
Yamina (Bennett) 15 13 (5)
Yesh Atid 13 14 (17)
Arabs 11 11 (15)
Shas 8 8 (9)
UTJ 7 8 (7)
B&W (Gantz) 6 4 (14)
IB Liberman 6 7 (7)
TA Mayor Huldai 6
Meretz 6 4 (3)
Obviously, the two polls asked slightly different questions which explains the slightly different results: only News12 included Teel Aviv Mayor Ron Huldai, which was reflected in Sa’ar’s score. We’re not even going to speculate who would be recommended to the president to have a first crack at forging the next coalition, there are too many unknowns in the equation. But one thing is clear: the split between Sa’ar and Netanyahu increased the rightwing camp’s share of the votes to the point where the Israeli left barely makes it to 10 seats, and the Joint Arab List is down to a solid 11. Avigdor Liberman’s Israel Beiteinu continues to hover around 6 to 7 mandates, after having seen better poll results earlier this year.
All of which means that Netanyahu’s snubbing of Gideon Sa’ar, who was in the top 5 in Likud’s most recent primary but did not receive a ministerial portfolio, could cost him his premiership, seeing as without the chunk of Likud voters Sa’ar has walked away with, Netanyahu has no path to 61 mandates and a majority recommendation to the president.