The new Miskar survey gives Likud a 1-seat lead, the 3-party Habayit Hayehudi get 11, Bennett-Shaked get 7, and Feiglin’s Zehut gets 7.
Are we in a right-wing lala Land? Bear with me.
I’d like to start with a confession. Back in 2016, I was addicted to the public opinion polls about the presidential elections in Israel – like most of the human race with too much time on their hands and a reasonably functioning computers. You’re all familiar with the results of that election, and many of you probably recall how the vast majority of polls predicted a victory—albeit modest—for the Democrat in the race, one Hillary Clinton (I think that was her name). She lost, and, in retrospect, the writing had been on the wall all along: several polls, most notably Rasmussen Reports, predicted a Trump win. I recall vividly looking at those few red polls in the midst of a forest of blue ones, and telling myself, Well, of course, they are Republican-biased. By which I meant that they focused on suburbia, and questioned voters who were highly committed to actually voting come November 8.
Since then I’ve learned my lesson, and have committed to take seriously even those polls whose predictions are extremely different from the more common ones – by a lot.
A few weeks ago, I glanced at a polling service called Miskar, or the Survey Institute, which boasts having the best insight on trends in the religious sector in Israel. Oh, well, they’re obviously biased you might say, but that’s exactly why I shared with you my experience with Rasmussen and those Republican-leaning surveys back in 2016. If the pollsters are honest and their methodology is transparent enough and their models are big enough – they could end up being right.
That Miskar survey polled a large group, more than 4,000 respondents, over several media, including the Internet. And there was another wrinkle – they only polled Jewish Israelis. So that whatever results they had come up with accounted for fewer than 120 Knesset seats.
They’re results back then predicted a huge win for the right, way better results than any other poll at the time.
Now Miskar has come up with a new poll, conducted between March 1 and 3, that includes all the segments of Israeli society, based on 4,500 respondents and using hundreds of different demographic categories, where the order of the party names was shuffled to increase the randomness.
It suggests a resounding victory for the right. It confirms my own suspicion that there’s a vast right-wing majority among Israeli Jews. And should it be reasonably accurate, it could continue Israel’s trajectory rightward. Enjoy…
The math favors Netanyahu to the point where one necessarily wonders how much of these figures were conceived using hallucinatory substances. But you know something – I’ll never forget 2016 and Rasmussen. So, with Likud scoring 28; Habayit Hayehudi, National Union and Jewish Power 11; New Right 7, Feiglin’s Zehut 7; United Torah Judaism 5; and Shas 4 – Bibi get his 62-seat coalition, and he doesn’t even have to deal with the fight between Liberman and the Haredim over the draft, and Kahlon versus the settlers over sovereignty. It’s as right-wing a party as can be imagined.
Indeed, if right-wing parties sign surplus deals with Liberman, Orly Levy, Kahlon and Eli Yishai, that’ll be as many as 6 more seats to right-wing parties. Make it a 68-seat coalition. Assuming Jewish Power is not in the government, walking away with their 3 seats, Bibi still comes out with a solid 65-seat coalition government.
Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon and Ashkenazi are completely disabled: B&W gets 27; Labor 5; Meretz 4 – and the rest is Arabs all the way down.