Hamas, according to the same experts, has been able to take the initiative since the moment it had seized control of the Gaza Strip from the PA in 2007, while the IDF has been strictly reactive. Hamas has been able to turn its strategy on a dime at every turn, among other things because it’s much smaller than its enemy. Towards the end of the 2014 war, when it became clear that Israel had found a reliable answer to the barrages of rockets against its civilian centers, Hamas directed its mortar fire on the Eshkol villages, scoring on several levels — the time it takes a mortar shell to land in Nahal Oz is terrifyingly shorter than the time for a missile to reach S’derot or Kiryat Gat. Alerts were down to 9 seconds at that point, which ended with casualties, including a toddler. Hamas scored its biggest success with that four-year-old, whose death was devastating to Israeli society. It also made then Chief of Staff Benny Ganz look like a fool, after having invited the local residents to come back home from central Israel.
Can Israel meet the tunnel challenge, which today poses a direct threat to the same civilian villages? The answer, according to Ha’aretz, is a resounding No. It turns out that the recently approved government budget does not include funds to develop and operate a technological response to the tunnels threat. There was a plan for a new fence around the strip, which were to include a reliable answer to the tunnel issue. It was supposed to cost $710 million — but it’s not in the budget.
Hamas is expected to strike when it comes under pressure from within. At this point, all the components for a good pressure cooker explosion are already in place: the Egyptian Army on the southern border has effectively shut down the smuggling tunnels through which Gazans used to receive their consumer goods and staples—and which were taxed by the Hamas government. The border crossings are opened very infrequently, and only a few thousand Gazans get to leave each time. Contributions from the Arab world and from Europe have been weak, because the world’s attention is focused on other conflict areas. Add to that the pesky, ISIS-affiliated militias roaming inside Gaza, and figure out for yourself how long it will take before Hamas decides it has no other option but to strike again.
Will the IDF have a response in place to the attack tunnels by then? Barring a generous contribution from Casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, who once offered to pay for the Iron Dome, the answer is an anxious Maybe.