Bernie Sanders won an upset victory in Michigan on Tuesday, despite a double-digit gap in the polls in Hillary Clinton’s favor, winning his largest state to date and pocketing about 60 to 70 of the 130 delegates and 17 super delegates. It doesn’t mean that the Jewish Senator from Vermont has caught up with his opponent, but he certainly narrowed the gap, and proved that he is still very much a viable threat.
The Democrats field 4,763 delegates, composed of 4,051 regular and 712 super delegates. With the bump Tuesday, Sanders is now in control of 540 regular and 25 super delegates, a total of 571. Clinton commands 745 regular and 461 super delegates for a total of 1,221.
Either candidate needs 2,382 delegates to win, which suggests that Clinton is halfway to the goal line while Sanders is still trailing from afar. However, there are some delegate rich states where Sanders could win and match Hillary’s stash: New York – 247 (44 super), Pennsylvania – 189 (21), California – 475 (71), and New Jersey – 126 (16).
All of these states were considered safe Hillary bastions until last night. If Sanders could deny Hillary Michigan, he stands a real chance of taking Illinois and Ohio this month. As David A. Graham put it in The Atlantic Wednesday morning: Michigan Says It Wants a Revolution, and if Michigan wants it, then the entire Midwest may be up for grabs.
Graham says the win gave Sanders the momentum he needed to match scores with Clinton. He also points to two new indicators: Sanders was able to cut into Clinton’s hold on black voters. Exit polls in Michigan show Sanders won 30% of the African-Americans, better than he had ever done before. He already has the majority of white males and younger women. Also, Sanders’ message of being the true champion of blue-collar workers and the enemy of free-trade deals could be just what the Democrats in Ohio and Illinois have been longing to hear.
So that by winning Michigan on March 8 Sanders literally lived to fight another day, and that other day is next Tuesday, March 15. If he takes both big Midwestern states, he will fuel not only his own momentum of victory, but Hillary’s negative momentum.
Clinton’s challenge is to deny Sanders Illinois and Ohio while holding on to her “sure bet” states that are in the running March 15 — Florida and North Carolina.