Speaking to the press at Toussaint Louverture International Airport in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, Secretary of State Antony Blinken insisted that 90% of the Israel-Hamas deal has been approved by both parties.
A reporter reminded Blinken of his statement from last June, that “the prospect of a ceasefire really is down to one person at this point, and you said it was Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas. Of course, a lot of things have happened since that time, but I wonder whether it is still your assessment that really it comes down at this point to that one man, Yahya Sinwar. There is a lot of criticism right now about the role of Prime Minister Netanyahu and what his exact position is.”
Blinken responded, “I think that only underscores something truly essential, which is that as close as we have gotten and as close as I believe we are to getting a ceasefire agreement, every day that goes by where it is not finalized and the parties don’t say yes, period, is a day in which something else happens and there is an intervening event, which simply pushes things off and runs the risk of derailing what is a pretty fragile apple cart.”
“I think based on what I’ve seen, 90 percent is agreed, but there are a few critical issues that remain where we need to be able to get agreement, and they really go to how certain aspects of the agreement would be implemented,” Blinken continued. “And I think much of this has been discussed in recent days, including the Philadelphi Corridor, including some of the exact specifics of how hostages and prisoners are exchanged. So that remains, but pretty much everything else is there.”
“So, at this point,” Blinken continued, “it seems to me that it’s really incumbent on both parties to get to yes on these remaining issues. And we’re in very active discussions with – first of all with our partners in this effort, Egypt and Qatar. And I expect in the coming days we will share with Israel, and they’ll share with Hamas, our thoughts, the three of us, on exactly how to resolve the remaining outstanding questions. And then it will be time really for the parties to decide yes or no, and then we’ll see.”
Perhaps this is what President Joe Biden was referring to when he told reporters on Monday (Biden Negotiating Gaza Deal Not with Netanyahu but with Qatar & Egypt), “We’re still in negotiations. Not with him, but with my colleagues from Qatar and Egypt.”
The Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar reported, citing an Egyptian source, that the talks are close to being concluded. According to the source, changes have been made to the proposed deal which Egypt views very positively. The success of the talks depends on the United States being able to oblige Israel to abide by the principles that were agreed upon in May, including a clause about Israeli supervision on a point-by-point basis along the Philadelphi corridor. Also, according to Al-Akhbar, when a ceasefire is reached, the release of terrorist prisoners will be done in two phases.
However, there remains a substantial disagreement between Egypt and Israel regarding the scope of the IDF withdrawal, as well as the number of living hostages to be released in the first phase. Reportedly, Israel is insisting on the release of at least 23 living hostages, out of an estimated 40 to 70, depending on one’s state of optimism. It’s also unclear whether Israel has agreed to a complete withdrawal in the second phase, which would radically contradict Netanyahu’s proclamation of fighting until the total victory.
Should Netanyahu stick to his guns and refuse to leave Philadelphi no matter the circumstances, Hamas is not likely to embrace the deal at all.
The only surefire way to move Hamas toward a deal would be to push Hamas toward extinction. When Sinwar is finally convinced that his end is near, he will negotiate, and then some.
