US Middle East envoy Amos Hochstein is expected to arrive Tuesday in Beirut for talks with the Lebanese government on an American ceasefire proposal.
Hochstein will then travel to Israel on Wednesday as part of his ongoing shuttle diplomacy efforts to reach an agreement that will end the war on the northern front launched by Lebanon’s Iranian proxy.
The draft proposal — which was leaked to media — was conveyed last Thursday for review by Lebanese Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri, and the plan is for the Lebanese government to sign the agreement in time for Hochstein to take a signed document to the Israeli government.
Hezbollah will not be asked to sign the deal – and since it is the Iranian proxy that launched the war on October 8, 2023, against Israel’s northern front, the entire process may result in northing more than another dog-and-pony show.
The proposal includes implementation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 – the 2006 ceasefire agreement that ended the Second Lebanon War but was immediately ignored by the Lebanese government as well as Hezbollah.
The deal also includes a retreat by Hezbollah away from the border and beyond the Litani River – a point that was included in Resolution 1701 and never implemented.
Under the agreement, Israeli forces would withdraw from the villages they have occupied and in which they are rooting out Hezbollah terrorists, weapons and infrastructure.
The draft proposal also includes strengthening Lebanese military forces – who deliberately turned a blind eye to Hezbollah activities on their territory – and the establishment of a US-UK-French committee that would include an undetermined Arab state to designate two generals who would then monitor implementation of the agreement on both sides of the border.
The Lebanese army and UN peacekeeping forces (UNIFIL) would be tasked with preventing Hezbollah from re-arming – an exercise in futility from the start, since both received the same mandate in 2006, and declined to tangle with the Iranian proxy.
The only new point in the draft is that which grants the right of “self-defense” to both sides – an open invitation for Hezbollah to launch new attacks – while Israel will allegedly be granted the right to military intervention in the case of violations of the resolution by Hezbollah south of the Litani.
Although the latter may sound good on paper, in practice its implementation will be largely dependent on who holds the cudgel in the White House — and we have yet to see an American Administration willing to openly approve Israeli military action in Lebanon. The UK and France are completely unlikely to do so, no matter who is sitting in London or Paris; both have enacted military embargoes against the Jewish State even as Israel fights for her survival in a very tough neighborhood.
Moreover, Israel will not be able to respond immediately to any Hezbollah violation of the ceasefire, but rather will have to submit a report of the violation to the two generals, who will then analyze the situation and determine whether in fact it really is a violation, after which the generals will decide whether or not Israel has a right to respond.
Multiple analysts say this is a process set up to shackle Israel, again, while allowing Hezbollah to continue along its merry way.
Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati said in a statement on Monday that his country’s response to the proposal was positive, “but there are several points that require further discussion.”
To start with, Mikati said he is “not aware of a condition that allows Israeli military freedom of action in Lebanon.”
Mikati said Lebanon is committed to Resolution 1701 and its implementation to the south of the Litani, adding that he considered “strengthening the presence of the Lebanese army south of Litani” to be most important. There will be no weapons other than the legitimate weapons of the state,” he pledged.
Of course, the Lebanese government also made the very same promise the last time around, and the day after the ink dried on the document, simply closed their eyes.
At the end of the day, Israel must rely on the One Above, who hardened the heart of Pharoah, allowing his people to feel the might of the full ten plagues before agreeing to a deal.
