Despite a year of intelligence gathering since the initial October 7, 2023 assault, US agencies remain uncertain about several crucial aspects of Hamas: the group’s internal power structure, its genuine willingness to accept a ceasefire, and its strategic vision for Gaza’s future. These knowledge gaps complicate policymakers’ efforts to prevent the conflict from expanding into a broader regional crisis, Politico reported on Sunday.
Historic gaps in US intelligence coverage of Hamas and Gaza persist, as years of treating these targets as lower priorities cannot be overcome in just twelve months, intelligence veterans and active officials told Politico.
Even after October 7, US intelligence resources remain spread across multiple fronts, with analysts focused on the Israel-Hezbollah tensions, Ukraine’s war effort, and Chinese activities, according to officials familiar with intelligence briefings.
Intelligence officials admitted to Congress their shock at Hamas’s operation, which claimed 30 American lives—making it the most lethal attack on US citizens since September 11, 2001. The officials acknowledged that such an elaborate assault must have required extensive, long-term planning.
You think?
And yet, nearly blind to what Hamas was about, its intentions and modus operandi, the US insisted on providing copious amounts of daily humanitarian provisions, including gasoline – which Hamas goons routinely collect and sell at a high price to the Gazans, beefing up its stash and maintaining its control over the civilians. Let’s face it, unless they face the enemy at a 10 to 1 numeric advantage, Americans are not too good at this fighting thing. And when it comes to logistics, such as erecting a ramp for trucks on a wharf – those things start floating over to the Tel Aviv promenade with the first serious storm.
Using its very limited strategic knowledge of Hamas and what it is doing in Gaza, the US has suspended the shipment of 3,500 bombs – 2,000 Lbs. and 500 Lbs., because of its concerns over the number of civilian casualties in the wake of Israel’s attacks on Hamas assets and commanders. Even while suffering from their myopic vision of reality in Gaza, the Americans still try their best to impede Israel’s ability to win.
As Secretary Blinken put it, there was “horrible loss of life of innocent civilians” – even though, as we now find out, Hamas captives have been suggesting that close to 80% of those killed in Gaza have been Hamas operatives and the family members with whom they surround themselves.
Compared with the US outlandish incineration of Iraqi civilians in 2003-2005, Israel’s ratio of 80 to 20 bad guys to innocent civilians has been the most scrupulous in the history of war.
“When it comes to the use of weapons, concerns about incidents where, given the totality of the damage that’s been done to children, women, men, it was reasonable to assess that, in certain instances, Israel acted in ways that are not consistent with international humanitarian law,” Blinken said – with zero intelligence to back up his audacious fib.
Politico suggested that intelligence gaps about Gaza hamper the White House’s peace efforts, a weakness exposed by repeated confusion over ceasefire negotiations. On several occasions, the Biden administration has prematurely announced Hamas’s acceptance of hostage-release proposals, only to face public denials from the terrorist group. Similar misreadings have occurred with the White House’s presentation of Israeli positions, highlighting the challenges in understanding both sides’ true stances.
Gaza’s isolation poses a fundamental challenge for US intelligence gathering, with its sealed borders making it nearly impossible to cultivate reliable human sources within the territory. That’s become even more difficult after October 7, as the Strip enclave is now completely closed off, making it harder to recruit human assets.
Israel used to be equally blind before October 7, which was the main reason the atrocious attack was allowed to take place. But now, having interrogated some 5,000 Hamas terrorists, and recruited many more Gazans who belong to anti-Hamas segments, such as the traditional clans, Israeli vision is pretty close to 20/20, as can be seen from the accurate attacks on newly formed terrorist enclaves up and down the Strip.
The Americans, it appears, especially the Biden White House, are simply not as good.
