If the negotiations with Hamas fail this time as well, the Americans will be faced with a dilemma of how to proceed, when the chances of a deal are so slim and the Democratic Party convention is starting next week. Make no mistake about it, this was never about the suffering civilians in Gaza or, alternatively, the remaining living Israeli hostages who have not been murdered yet. This has always been about winning the White House and gliding problem-free into the January 20, 2025 inauguration.
So, what will the administration do if Israel fails to deliver? Mind you, it’s always about Israel. No one expects Hamas’s lone boss Yahia Sinwar to be flexible – only Netanyahu is being ordered to give a little more. And this is not coming only from the Americans – the IDF brass are convincing themselves and anyone suicidal enough to listen that no harm could come from withdrawing from the Philadelphi corridor that separates Gaza from Egypt. They’ll sprinkle sensors everywhere to make sure the tons of Iranian weapons and ammunition waiting on the Egyptian side are not delivered to breathe new life into the expiring Hamas. And should push come to shove, no problem, the IDF is perfectly capable of retaking Philadelphi.
The Hebrew word for this kind of hubris is “Smokh.” It means, literally, “count (on me).” Israelis used to trust the IDF’s smokh. But since October 1973, and even more so since October 2023, no one does. Not even a little. Netanyahu and the majority right-wing contingency in his cabinet and coalition are well aware that once the IDF abandons Philadelphi, the war gains would be reversed.
And this is why Hamas is pushing this point above anything else. It all comes down to getting the IDF to stop punishing them in southern and central Gaza. Luckily, they’ve got a Michigan-pleasing White House on their side. Heck, they have the IDF Command on their side.
The security establishment in Israel believes that should Hamas walk away from Thursday’s talks because Netanyahu’s mom did not raise an idiot and he remains committed to holding on to the Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors to maintain control of the southern Strip and the smuggling of weapons from Egypt, the administration a new dictate, ordering both sides to accept it without further bargaining.
Netanyahu will refuse, and Biden and the gang will retaliate by finally putting all the blame on him.
The first thing the White House will do in that scenario is come down hard with direct sanctions against Ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, who, together with Likud’s right-wing contingency, have been resisting the pro-Hamas forces in Washington and Tel Aviv.
As National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby put it on August 10:
“We’ve seen some statements from some quarters in Israel, over recent days, attacking the deal. I just want to underscore how wrong this is, not only in substance but also jeopardizing the lives of the hostages and running counter to Israel’s own national security interests.
“Some critics, like Mr. Smotrich, for example, have claimed that the hostage deal is a surrender to Hamas or that hostages should not be exchanged for prisoners. Mr. Smotrich essentially suggests that the war ought to go on indefinitely, without pause, and with the lives of the hostages of no real concern at all. His arguments are dead wrong. They’re misleading the Israeli public. And I want to take just a moment, if I could, to address some of those claims.
“This deal, as negotiated over months, fully protects Israel’s national security interests. In fact, on the 3rd of July, over one month ago, Hamas accepted the key terms that had been demanded by Israel: Israeli forces do not withdraw entirely from Gaza during the first phase of the deal, even as the lives of the hostages — all the hostages in the category of women, older men, those who are wounded and sick — are saved and returned to their families.”
Or, in Hebrew, Smokh.
Of course, it didn’t make the White House more enamored with Ben Gvir when he chose to ascend to the Temple Mount on 9 B’Av and encouraged some 2,900 Jews who also visited the holiest site on the most tragic Jewish date to pray and prostrate themselves on the cobblestones – to the chagrin of many Haredi rabbis.
SMOTRICH V BORRELL
Josep Borrell, the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security, suggested this week that the EU might consider imposing sanctions following accusations of Israeli ministers encouraging war crimes in Gaza.
Borrell tweeted:
Sanctions must be on our EU agenda.” He accused National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir of inciting war crimes by advocating for the cessation of fuel and aid supplies to Palestinian civilians.
While the world calls for a ceasefire in Gaza, Minister Ben Gvir demands cutting off fuel and aid to civilians,” Borrell tweeted.
He drew parallels between Ben Gvir’s comments and previous statements by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, describing both as “incitement to war crimes.
Smotrich responded:
Borrell does not stop misleading and claims that the IDF bombings in Gaza are worse than those on Nazi Germany and fiercely defined the Arnon operation to free our hostages as the “new massacre” of Palestinians. His words mean hypocritical support for terrorism and make no mistake, he really does not care about the residents of Gaza.
If he cared about them, he would support Israel’s right and duty to destroy Hamas as soon as possible and free the Gazans from the dictatorial reign of terror that has controlled them by force of arms since 2007, and throughout all the years since enslaving all the resources of the Gaza Strip for digging tunnels and producing weapons and missiles against Israel instead of for the welfare of the population.
If he really cared about the residents of Gaza, he would attack the wall that Egypt built around Gaza to imprison its residents by force and help those of them who want to escape from the Hamas prison in Gaza, to rehabilitate and find a new life of freedom and security in the EU countries.
But in order to please some Hamas supporters in Europe, Borrell is ready to sacrifice the residents of Gaza and attack Israel, which is fighting the war of the entire West against the evil and murderous barbarism of Hamas and the Iranian axis of evil that threatens the entire West.
A day will come when Europe will be ashamed of Borrell and the double standards of some of its members who stand on the side of evil and against good.”
BIDEN’S HAD IT UP TO HERE WITH BIBI
The Biden administration has a long history with Netanyahu himself. The considerations of whether to escalate the confrontation with him may change now, when Biden is preparing to retire, and Vice President Kamala Harris is preparing to face Donald Trump for the presidency.
Harris, more than Biden, publicly expresses her discomfort with the continued fighting in the Gaza Strip, fearing an erosion of support from the progressive camp in her party.
Have Biden and Harris reached the point of publicly disowning the Israeli PM? This line has not been crossed so far and it will be difficult to cross when Israel is under the threat of missile and drone attacks from Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
The Biden administration envisions a connection between a ceasefire in Gaza and the end of the war of attrition on the Lebanese border. Amos Hochstein, President Joe Biden’s emissary, is already hopping between Beirut and Jerusalem.
On Wednesday, after a meeting with the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament Nabih Berri, the leader of the Amal party and the liaison between the Americans and Hezbollah, Hochstein said that “there is no time to waste and no excuses for further delay” in achieving a ceasefire in Gaza, which he is certain would also stop the violence on the Lebanese border.
Yes, but even if Nasrallah stops the shooting war, he is not going to obey UN resolution 1701 which calls on Hezbollah to retreat to the northern bank of the Litani River, some 30 kilometers from the Israeli border. And if Hezbollah remains in the area right across the border, how would the Israeli government be able to reassure its thousands of evacuated civilians that it’s safe to return home?
GALLANT’S HINT
This is an official press release that was issued last Tuesday. Tell me if you notice a repeated theme:
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant visited an IDF intelligence base in northern Israel, where he was briefed on the intelligence operations that enabled the elimination of Hezbollah military chief, Sayyid Muhsan. The briefing also focused on efforts to thwart Hezbollah terrorists and threats across Lebanon.
Later in the visit, Minister Gallant held a meeting with the Head of the IDF’s Northern Command, Maj. Gen. Uri Gordin and discussed the operational readiness and preparations within the branches of the Command.
Minister Gallant said upon completing his visit: “I am now completing a visit to an intelligence base in the northern area of our country. It was from this place that Hezbollah Military Chief Muhsan was eliminated. The troops here are working very hard, and are preparing for anything that may take place.”
“We deal with both removing threats and preparing all the possibilities in order to be able to attack wherever we decide.
“We are determined to fulfill our mission- we must ensure the safe return of [Israel’s northern] residents to their homes, once we ensure that Hezbollah withdraws north of the Litani River.”
In other words, you have such a nice terrorist organization, would be a shame to assassinate all of you.
And so it goes. The negotiating teams are getting together as this report is being written. What can I tell you? Stay tuned.
