A whole bunch of key Biden administration figures are set to embark on a crucial diplomatic mission to the Middle East. Their goal: avert regional conflict and broker a deal for both hostage release and a ceasefire in Gaza. Their onslaught is intense, and the proposed negotiations that are to begin on Thursday underscore the apparent urgency of the situation. As Barak Ravid put it on Saturday, citing Israel’s security establishment officials, it’s the “now or never” moment.
What’s so magical about Thursday to make it the very last window of opportunity? First, I suppose, it has a good ring to it, even though everyone, including all my dear readers, knows that if Hamas wanted to sign a deal, they could do it on Wednesday or on Friday, or next Sunday. The calendar is open.
The magic about Thursday is about blackmail. As Ravid described it, the United States, alongside its international partners, is urging restraint from Iran and Hezbollah. This diplomatic effort aims to discourage retaliatory actions against Israel following the recent killings of a Hamas political figure in Tehran and a high-ranking Hezbollah official in Beirut.
The ransom note says, that if Israel wishes to avoid a calamitous Iranian and Hezbollah attack that could kill thousands of Israelis, regardless of what Israel would do in retaliation, it better move on with the hostage release–terrorists’ release–IDF withdrawal deal.
You have such a nice country, it would be a shame to kill everybody…
WHY THURSDAY? ASK NASRALLAH, ASK IRAN
Haaretz, another reliable and unbiased news source, reported on Sunday morning, citing “an Israeli source,” that according to the information that reached Israel, Sinwar wants in the deal. “The question is whether Netanyahu wants it, or whether he will align himself with the ultimatum of Ben Gvir, who promised to dissolve the government (should the deal take place – DI). Will Netanyahu rise above the challenge of the hour and bring about the release of the hostages, or will he prefer to save his coalition,” the source wondered.
Such a transparent, unbiased source. It’s a pleasure…
According to Raviv, US, Egyptian, and Qatari mediators and officials are spending the next few days trying to close the gaps between Israel and Hamas ahead of a final round of negotiations between the parties, set for Thursday, Aug. 15. Why? Because of Hezbollah. While the timing remains uncertain, US and Israeli officials believe Hezbollah may initiate an attack, possibly as soon as this weekend.
The US, Israel, and several European and Arab allies are readying defensive measures to protect Israel from potential attacks, should diplomatic efforts falter. Gen. Michael Kurilla, CENTCOM commander, visited Israel on Thursday for strategic talks, marking his second trip in under a week.
If a war erupts between Israel and Hezbollah, and maybe between Israel and Iran as well, no one in Israel would be paying attention to the hostage negotiations.
On Saturday, the Iranian delegation to the United Nations hinted that if talks between Hamas and Israel resume, Tehran would delay or moderate its response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh on its territory. “We hope that our response will be timed so that it will not harm in a way the possibility of a cease-fire,” the Iranians said. “Our priority is to establish a lasting ceasefire in Gaza. We will also recognize any agreement accepted by Hamas.”
On Saturday, Ali Shamkhani, a political advisor to the Leader of the Islamic Revolution and ex-secretary of Iran’s National Security Council, tweeted that the Zionist regime only understands the “language of force.” He pointed to Israel’s earlier attack on a school sheltering Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists in Gaza, arguing it was a sign the Zionists are not serious about establishing calm in the war-torn Gaza Strip. “The only goal of Israel in killing worshippers at Tabeen School in Gaza, and assassinating martyr Haniyeh in Iran, is warmongering and derailing the truce talks,” he said.
So, Thursday. We’ll see.
