Unnamed US officials have told PBS journalist Nick Schifrin that they fear Russia could invade Ukraine as early as next week – before the end of the 2020 Winter Olympics in Beijing.
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters in a White House briefing, however – without fully denying it – that Schifrin’s report “does not accurately capture what the US government’s view is today…Our view is that we do not believe [Russian President Vladimir Putin] has made any kind of final decision, or we don’t know that he has made any final decision, and we have not communicated that to anybody.”
US officials anticipate a horrific, bloody campaign that begins with two days or aerial bombardment and electronic warfare, followed by an invasion, with the possible goal of regime change.
— Nick Schifrin (@nickschifrin) February 11, 2022
US President Joe Biden spoke with the Russian president on Saturday morning from the presidential retreat at Camp David in Maryland. It was their first direct conversation since December.
No Breakthrough in Biden-Putin Talks
The call, which lasted close to an hour, produced no breakthrough and on the ground there has been “no real evidence of de-escalation or interest in de-escalation,” Schifrin reported.
The two leaders agreed to stay in touch but “Russia may decide to proceed with military action anyway; indeed that is a distinct possibility,” said the official who spoke with him, adding, “We remain committed to keep diplomacy alive. . . The stakes of this are too high not to give Russia every option to avoid steps that would be catastrophic.”
A statement from the White House following the call said Biden “was clear that, if Russia undertakes a further invasion of Ukraine, the United States together with our Allies and partners will respond decisively and impose swift and severe costs on Russia.”
The president “reiterated that a further Russia invasion of Ukraine would produce widespread human suffering and diminish Russia’s standing,” and added that “while the United States remains prepared to engage in diplomacy, in full coordination with our Allies and partners we are equally prepared for other scenarios.”
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, meanwhile, ordered the “temporary repositioning” – out of the country — of 160 National Guard troops who were training and mentoring Ukraine troops.
Asked whether the embassy was burning documents already and moving classified equipment, the official said the embassy was “reducing those holdings” and “reducing that volume of equipment,” without being specific.
— Nick Schifrin (@nickschifrin) February 12, 2022
The US State Department updated its travel advisory for Ukraine on Saturday, saying bluntly in a Level Four warning sent out in bold font, “Do not travel to Ukraine due to the increased threats of Russian military action and COVID-19; those in Ukraine should depart immediately via commercial or private means.”
US Orders Diplomats, Emissaries to Leave Ukraine
During the day Saturday, the State Department ordered the departure of most US direct hire employees from Embassy Kiev due to the continued threat of Russian military action. Those employees and their families had been authorized on January 23 to leave voluntarily.
At US Embassy Kyiv we just bumped into a US employee who didn’t want to be named and was coming out carrying bags. He wouldn’t comment about the pullout or timeline but holding his bags in the air said, “I have all my stuff with me.” @BuzzFeedNews pic.twitter.com/mIjfHlBlCR
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 12, 2022
“As of Sunday, February 13, 2022, the Department of State will suspend consular services at the US Embassy in Kiev,” the advisory also warned.
“The Embassy will maintain a small consular presence in Lviv, Ukraine to handle emergencies, but will not be able to provide passport, visa or routine consular services,” but may “seek these services at US Embassies in neighboring countries,” it said.
‘Time to Leave Now’
“We want to be crystal clear on this point,” the National Security Adviser said in a statement to reporters on Friday. “Any American in Ukraine should leave as soon as possible – and in any event, in the next 24 to 48 hours.”
Sullivan said the risk is “now high enough, and the threat is now immediate enough, that this is what prudence demands.” He added there would be “no prospect of a US military evacuation” in the event of a Russian invasion.
The National Security Adviser said that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be “likely to begin with aerial bombing and missile attacks that could obviously kill civilians without regard to their nationality,” followed by a ground invasion by a “massive force.” He warned that communications could be cut off and no one would be able to count on air or rail or road departures “once military action got underway.
“It is the time to leave now,” Sullivan urged.
