The recent assassinations of a Hezbollah commander in Lebanon and Hamas’s political leader in Iran have significantly altered the geopolitical landscape, forcing President Biden to reassess risks and strategies, The NY Times reported Wednesday.
As a lame-duck president, Biden had aimed to focus his remaining term on resolving the Gaza conflict and potentially brokering a transformative agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. However, these targeted killings have complicated his objectives, at least in the immediate future.
Without his own re-election campaign to manage, Biden had envisioned dedicating his final months in office to achieving lasting peace in the region. The assassinations have introduced new variables and tensions, likely making it more challenging to achieve quick progress on these ambitious diplomatic goals.
Hallelujah!
White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby told reporters on Wednesday: “These reports over the last 24, 48 hours certainly don’t help with the temperature going down. I’m not going to be Pollyannish about it. We’re obviously concerned about escalation. And, again, without confirming the reports over the last 24, in terms of Tehran, certainly, the IDF has already spoken to operations that they’ve conducted elsewhere.
“All of this adds to the complicated nature of what we’re trying to get done. And what we’re trying to get done is a ceasefire deal that can get you six weeks in phase one, get a lot of hostages — the most at risk — out of there and home with their families, and get some more humanitarian assistance in there.”
According to the NYT, the Biden administration was not informed in advance of the Haniyeh assassination early Wednesday morning, and top Pentagon and military officials were stunned by the assassination, particularly the decision to carry it out in the Iranian capital – making it difficult for the Iranians not to retaliate. But one senior US military officer told the Times that while Iran is obviously embarrassed by its failure to protect the Hamas arch-terrorist, the Mullahs regime is afraid to engage in an all-out war with Israel.
State Dept. Principal Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel was asked during a briefing on Wednesday about earlier reports that the US “was seeking to deter Israel from striking Beirut in retaliation for the attack over the weekend (that killed 12 children – DI). Do you feel Israel has ignored your warnings? And what conversations have you had with Israel today?”
Patel responded, “What I can say is that our priority regionwide continues to be promoting diplomatic solutions for a more peaceful and secure region. That’s what we’re going to continue to remain focused on. Those have been at the core tenets of the conversations that the Secretary has had in the past half a day in the region, continuing to talk to counterparts about ways we can continue to push and make a ceasefire happen, and that’s what we’ll keep focus on.”
Kirby was asked at his press briefing, “But, you know, who is Israel supposed to negotiate with if the leader of Hamas is dead?”
The reporter was referring to the hostage negotiations that the late Ismail Haniyeh had been conducting on behalf of Hamas, although not as “leader of Hamas.” The only real decisionmaker for Hamas continues to be Yahya Sinwar, who for now is presumably safely ensconced in a tunnel somewhere under Khan Younes.
Kirby responded, “We still believe there’s a viable process. We still believe there’s interested counterparts. And we still believe that there are meetings and discussions to be had. We wouldn’t have a team over there right now if we didn’t believe that it was possible to — to try to gather — gather together and — and push this forward.”
David Ignatius opined in The Washington Post on Wednesday: “Since the Israel-Gaza war began, it’s been clear that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would take unilateral measures, regardless of American advice, to repay Hamas for its ghastly Oct. 7 attack on Israel. His goal isn’t making peace with Hamas, but destroying it. And most Israelis probably agree with him.”
There you go.
