You’ll notice that I added North Carolina to the list of swing states. This is because the Romeny camp has declared it as such, probably not a minute too soon. With its 15 delegates, North Carolina broke McCain’s heart in 2008 and went for the Democrats. It’s good to know someone in the Romney camp is doing some thinking.
You’ll also note that Virginia this morning is leaning Republican, but well within the margin of error. Virginia will remain a tight race all the way to November.
We still don’t have a recent, reliable poll on Iowa. There’s only a Democratic campaign poll from 8/23-26, giving Obama 47% vs. 45% to Romney. Iowa also awarded its 7 delegates to Obama in 2008, but, like North Carolina, it should go Republican, all things being equal. Like Indiana, which went for Obama in ’08 (11 delegates). Today, Indiana is leaning Republican, and the universe is that much closer to equilibrium….
So, the swing states are still mostly going to Obama, but with some data seriously missing, and with margins that shouldn’t let the Democrats take a rest, nor fill Republican hearts with despair.
Stay tuned.
| 91212 | |||||
| State | # Delegates | Poll Dates | Obama | Romney | Spraed |
| Colorado | 9 | 8/13 – 9/2 | 48.7 | 45.3 | Obama +3.4 |
| Florida | 29 | 8/22 – 9/9 | 48.3 | 46.3 | Obama +2.0 |
| Iowa | 6 | 5/22 – 8/26 | 45 | 44.8 | Obama +0.2 |
| Nevada | 6 | 7/24 – 8/26 | 49 | 45.7 | Obama +3.3 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 6/20 – 8/12 | 48.3 | 44.8 | Obama +3.5 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 8/22 – 9/9 | 45.5 | 49 | Romney +3.5 |
| Ohio | 18 | 8/15 – 9/9 | 47.6 | 45.4 | Obama +2.2 |
| Virginia | 13 | 8/13 – 9/9 | 46.5 | 47.3 | Romney +0.8 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 8/13 – 8/21 | 48.2 | 46.8 | Obama +1.4 |
| 91112 | |||||
| State | # Delegates | Poll Dates | Obama | Romney | Spraed |
| Colorado | 9 | 8/13 – 9/2 | 48.7 | 45.3 | Obama +3.4 |
| Florida | 29 | 8/15 – 9/2 | 48.5 | 46.8 | Obama +1.7 |
| Iowa | 6 | 5/22 – 8/26 | 45 | 44.8 | Obama +0.2 |
| Nevada | 6 | 7/24 – 8/26 | 49 | 45.7 | Obama +3.3 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 6/20 – 8/12 | 48.3 | 44.8 | Obama +3.5 |
| Ohio | 18 | 8/15 – 9/9 | 47.6 | 45.4 | Obama +2.2 |
| Virginia | 13 | 8/13 – 8/23 | 47.3 | 46.7 | Obama +0.6 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 8/13 – 8/21 | 48.2 | 46.8 | Obama +1.4 |
| 91012 | |||||
| State | # Delegates | Poll Dates | Obama | Romney | Spraed |
| Colorado | 9 | 8/13 – 9/2 | 48.7 | 45.3 | Obama +3.4 |
| Florida | 29 | 8/15 – 9/2 | 48.5 | 46.8 | Obama +1.7 |
| Iowa | 6 | 5/22 – 8/26 | 45 | 44.8 | Obama +0.2 |
| Nevada | 6 | 7/24 – 8/26 | 49 | 45.7 | Obama +3.3 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 6/20 – 8/12 | 48.3 | 44.8 | Obama +3.5 |
| Ohio | 18 | 8/15 – 9/9 | 47.6 | 45.4 | Obama +2.2 |
| Virginia | 13 | 8/13 – 8/23 | 47.3 | 46.7 | Obama +0.6 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 8/13 – 8/21 | 48.2 | 46.8 | Obama +1.4 |
| 90912 | |||||
| State | # Delegates | Poll Dates | Obama | Romney | Spraed |
| Colorado | 9 | 8/9 – 9/2 | 47.8 | 45.5 | Obama +2.3 |
| Florida | 29 | 8/13 – 9/2 | 47.3 | 46.7 | Obama +0.6 |
| Iowa | 6 | 5/22 – 8/26 | 45 | 44.8 | Obama +0.2 |
| Nevada | 6 | 7/24 – 8/26 | 49 | 45.7 | Obama +3.3 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 6/20 – 8/12 | 48.3 | 44.8 | Obama +3.5 |
| Ohio | 18 | 8/13 – 9/2 | 46.2 | 45.5 | Obama +0.7 |
| Virginia | 13 | 8/13 – 8/23 | 47.3 | 46.7 | Obama +0.6 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 8/13 – 8/21 | 48.2 | 46.8 | Obama +1.4 |