Sefer Bereishit was replete with role models. Each individual had unique character traits from which we can learn. Avraham teaches us about having faith and generosity. Yitzchak models quiet strength, consistency, and peace-seeking. Yaakov shows resilience, strategic thinking, and the power of personal growth. Together, they represent a full spectrum of leadership, and their lives remind us that spiritual greatness comes in many forms.
In Sefer Shemot, we are introduced to Moshe Rabbeinu, who embodies a different type of leadership. He has a rare blend of humility, courage, and unwavering commitment to justice. He stood up to Pharaoh, interceded for Bnei Yisrael, and carried the burden of their complaints with patience and faith. As it says in Devarim, “Never again has there arisen a prophet in Israel like Moshe.”
This time of year, as we read weekly of Moshe’s experiences, I think a lot about his trait of humility. In the secular world, January is generally a time when financial pundits exhibit the opposite trait of haughtiness: They make bold predictions, play up last year’s returns (if they were good), and share with the world why their views are prophetic in nature. This bravado is all to drum up new business or remain relevant.
This confidence is not only exhibited by well-known investment strategists. Friends in your own community, looking to pitch real estate and other opportunities, are so confident in their abilities that rarely is a word about risk ever mentioned.
The problem is many investors fall under the spell of these false prophets. A combination of eloquence, pedigree, looking the part, and past success (even if it was long in the past) can convince even the most sophisticated investors that these people have an edge. Unfortunately, even the most credentialed or successful investment strategists do not have a direct line to Hashem. None can know with certainty what will happen in the future. Usually, these people have one or two good calls that they use to market themselves for the rest of their careers.
There are many examples of this phenomenon. I won’t mention specific names, but if readers want to do their own research just look up the best performing funds/stock pickers in a previous year. They will rarely be on top multiple years in a row. Yet, they will still get prominent airtime to discuss their strategies, which are usually wrong or antiquated.
A prominent example of this investment hubris is the stock market gurus who made millions (and sometimes billions) of dollars during the Great Financial Crisis while the rest of the world lost their shirts. Many of these GFC winners are still sought out today for their guidance, despite not having a winning investment in nearly 20 years. One good call secured their spot as a voice of reason for decades despite being consistently wrong or misguided thereafter. Ordinary investors and families who heed their advice are the ones paying the biggest price.
The truth is no one knows what the future will bring. Asset classes, investments, and various other factors that may impact your portfolio are unpredictable. A quote that I usually share with my clients this time of year is by baseball legend Yogi Berra: “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the parshiot that introduce us to Moshe coincide with the most popular time of year to make bold market predictions. Perhaps it is to remind us that the best money managers are humble and outwardly express that they are unsure what the future holds. The people who exude arrogance, overconfidence, and certainty about the future, should be avoided. As Ray Dalio, one of the most successful hedge fund managers in history, once said, “He who lives by the crystal ball will eat shattered glass.” This is a blunt admission that forecasting is dangerous and unreliable. It takes a measured approach, and a less bold mindset that acknowledges what you don’t know, to experience long-term financial success. So be cautious when selecting who manages your money and where you look for financial guidance. Find someone humble enough to appreciate the unpredictability of market cycles, company earnings, and risks that are out of their control. Doing so will lead to a more realistic strategy to manage money.
As I’ve learned from being a financial advisor for nearly two decades: if you are not humbled by the persistent theme of market unpredictability, the market will end up humbling you!