In the more than two years since the Oct. 7 attacks, Israel had sought to dismantle the Hamas threat on its southern border, driven by the mantra “total victory.” Yet, despite wreaking untold devastation on Hamas, reports are confirming that the terrorist group is cementing its hold over Gaza by appointing loyalists to government roles and collecting taxes. And it has reached the point where we must now confront the reality that the current resurgence of Hamas is the direct result of a “peace” imposed by the Trump administration that forced Israel to stop short of its necessary objectives.
The turning point was not a failure of Israeli arms, as some suggest, but a shift in American will. In late 2025, President Trump leveraged his “America First” doctrine to demand an immediate end to the conflict between Israel and Hamas, effectively overriding Israeli military necessity in favor of diplomatic spectacle. By forcing a ceasefire before Hamas was fully dismantled, the administration provided the group the oxygen it needed to survive.
The cornerstone of this failure is the Board of Peace, the U.S.-led international body established by President Trump to manage Gaza’s reconstruction. While hailed as a “new dawn,” by President Trump, it has merely served as a shield for the status quo. Instead of the “total victory,” with production and infrastructure utterly destroyed, Israel was forced to accept a “shaky ceasefire” that left the group armed and dangerous.
By prioritizing quick exits and a “Board of Peace” over the total defeat of a genocidal proxy, the United States didn’t end the war or the Hamas threat – it merely enabled the next chapter. Hamas is not “getting rid of their weapons,” as President Trump put it. Hamas is waiting. And because Israel was forced to refrain from finishing the job, it will eventually be forced to try all over again – at an even higher cost.
The impulse to compromise in the face of widespread bloodshed is surely a testament to moral conscience. But the history of the Israel-Hamas conflict is a chronicle of tactical pauses masquerading as strategic resolutions.
We think the same scenario is being played out between Iran and the U.S. and Israel. In our view, the palpable Trump desire for compromise and palpable hesitancy to pull the trigger are what are encouraging Iranian obstinance and recalcitrance, despite the vast American armada arrayed against it. And this is to say nothing about the presence there of formidable Israeli military forces as well.
But as with Hamas, the ultimate question is not whether to use overwhelming force, but when.