August 7, 2026 Clock Ticks for Israel on Hostages, Hamas, and Diplomatic Grace
A few days before the launch of the ground phase of Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza, I observed an exercise by soldiers of Israel's Southern Command. They were from the Givati Brigade, the main regular infantry force of that command, and they were practising fighting in built-up areas.
The exercise took place in central Israel, at a facility maintained by one of the country's largest defence companies. There was a series of concrete structures arranged to resemble the tightly packed houses and alleyways one would find in a densely populated Middle Eastern city.
The soldiers, all in their early 20s, practised methods they would use to cover each other as they moved into such an environment; moving in pairs, entering and exiting rooms, identifying targets. There was the curious mixture of youthful lightheartedness and deadly seriousness of purpose with which I associate such environments.
As we watched, I asked the young man from the Israel Defence Forces Spokesperson's Unit who accompanied us whether he thought there would be a major ground incursion into Gaza, given the delays and uncertainties, and the fear of what such an invasion might mean for the more than 230 Israeli hostages held in the Strip since October 7.
"The ground operation's coming," he said, with absolute certainty. "I don't know exactly when. But it's coming."
He was right. Some or all of the young men (and one young woman) we observed taking part in the Givati exercise are now inside the Gaza Strip, using the skills they polished that day, now in deadly earnest.
The third chapter of the war that began on October 7 between Israel and Hamas-controlled Gaza has started.
The first phase was the Hamas incursion and rampage of October 7, and the subsequent, belated efforts by the Israeli security forces to re-secure and seal the border. The second was the subsequent air campaign, designed to strike at Hamas infrastructure and facilities in the Strip, and accompanied in its final days by a series of raids and incursions.
These, it is now clear, were intended to probe vulnerabilities in Hamas's defences and test the responses of its forces.
Israel's political leaders also have various, not entirely consistent, formulations regarding the strategic goal of the campaign. Sometimes, unambiguously, the objective described is to "bring down Hamas" in Gaza; that is, to end the government of the Islamist movement in the area. At other times, the stated objective is to destroy the military capabilities of Hamas. These do not mean the same thing.
Observation of the movement of forces since October 27 would appear to suggest the IDF is in this phase of the operation seeking to close in on Gaza City, the main urban area, from two directions and to cut the Gaza Strip into two.
Israeli forces entered the Gaza Strip from both the north and the east. They have now reached the Salah al-Din road, the main north-south thoroughfare in Gaza, and are operating in the outskirts of Gaza City. Israeli forces have begun to engage Hamas fighters in parts of the vast tunnel network built by the Islamist movement beneath the city.
Both sides are claiming initial tactical successes. The Telegram channel of Hamas's al-Qassam Brigades noted on Tuesday morning that "the mujaheddin of al-Qassam are now engaged in a clash with enemy forces invading northwest Gaza. Two vehicles were targeted with al-Yassin 105 shells, setting them on fire and killing one of the soldiers."
Battle has only just been engaged and it is too soon to draw any firm tactical conclusions. But at present Israel appears to be advancing methodically at its own chosen pace, taking and securing limited areas and then reinforcing these with larger numbers of troops. The claims by al-Qassam that it is defeating or foiling the IDF plan seem as of now to have little merit.
The most notable element of the Israeli ground manoeuvre so far visible is this slow and methodical tempo. Israeli officials have cautioned that the operation may take weeks, if not months.
Ground manoeuvre begins
The third phase, the ground manoeuvre, began on Friday, October 27, somewhat belatedly, three weeks into the war. The thousands of reservists mobilised after the Hamas massacre had settled into an uneasy routine on the dusty border, cleaning their equipment, dealing with the monotony of combat rations and the unseasonally hot days. The IDF had maintained a shroud of secrecy over the timing of the ground operation. At first it wasn't clear that it had, in fact, begun. Raids and incursions had taken place in previous days. The moves on that Friday evening might have appeared at first to have been just a larger-scale raid of this type. But when Israeli forces were still present on Gaza's soil at dawn the following day, it was clear the new phase had begun. Still, there has been no pouring of troops into Gaza, no thunder run by IDF armour to Gaza City, with the intent of a swift decapitation of the Hamas administration that has held power since 2007. Rather, the move so far has been slow and systematic. The IDF has made no announcement of intentions.Israel's political leaders also have various, not entirely consistent, formulations regarding the strategic goal of the campaign. Sometimes, unambiguously, the objective described is to "bring down Hamas" in Gaza; that is, to end the government of the Islamist movement in the area. At other times, the stated objective is to destroy the military capabilities of Hamas. These do not mean the same thing.
Observation of the movement of forces since October 27 would appear to suggest the IDF is in this phase of the operation seeking to close in on Gaza City, the main urban area, from two directions and to cut the Gaza Strip into two.
Israeli forces entered the Gaza Strip from both the north and the east. They have now reached the Salah al-Din road, the main north-south thoroughfare in Gaza, and are operating in the outskirts of Gaza City. Israeli forces have begun to engage Hamas fighters in parts of the vast tunnel network built by the Islamist movement beneath the city.
Both sides are claiming initial tactical successes. The Telegram channel of Hamas's al-Qassam Brigades noted on Tuesday morning that "the mujaheddin of al-Qassam are now engaged in a clash with enemy forces invading northwest Gaza. Two vehicles were targeted with al-Yassin 105 shells, setting them on fire and killing one of the soldiers."
Battle has only just been engaged and it is too soon to draw any firm tactical conclusions. But at present Israel appears to be advancing methodically at its own chosen pace, taking and securing limited areas and then reinforcing these with larger numbers of troops. The claims by al-Qassam that it is defeating or foiling the IDF plan seem as of now to have little merit.
The most notable element of the Israeli ground manoeuvre so far visible is this slow and methodical tempo. Israeli officials have cautioned that the operation may take weeks, if not months.
