New York Covid-19 Deaths Seem Unrelated To Mass Adherence To Health Guidelines

An analysis conducted by The Jewish Press of publicly-available data has found no obvious correlation between the Covid-19 death rate and mass adherence to Covid-19 rules and recommendations.

For the last few months, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and countless others have berated Orthodox Jews for not adhering to Covid-19 rules. To ignore these rules is to put other people’s lives at risk, they have warned repeatedly.

Nonetheless, the vast majority of frum Jews living in areas like Boro Park and Williamsburg do not follow many Covid-19 regulations and recommendations. What has been the outcome?

The Jewish Press last week dug into the data, which is accessible on the website of the New York City Department of Health. Based on the pronouncements of public officials, The Jewish Press assumed the number of deaths would be greater in heavily frum (and especially chassidic) areas of the city in comparison to other areas where people strictly adhere to Covid-19 regulations. The data, however, tell a different story.

Take Crown Heights and Washington Heights, for example. In Crown Heights, hardly anyone wears a mask. In Washington Heights, almost everyone wears a mask. Yet, in one of Washington Heights’s two zip codes (10040), the number of Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 is greater (289) than the number of Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 in the 11213 zip code of Crown Heights (234).

Meanwhile, in heavily chassidic Williamsburg – in zip codes 11205, 11206, and 11211 –the number of Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 is even lower: 110, 186, and 142, respectively. Williamsburg actually seems to have the lowest death rate of any frum neighborhood. The area with the highest Covid-19 death rate in the city (714 – or five times higher than the rate in Williamsburg) is East New York (zip code 11239), where few Jews live.

A comparison between Boro Park and Flatbush is illustrative as well. In Boro Park, compliance with Covid-19 guidelines is relatively low. In Flatbush, it’s relatively high. But the number of Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 is actually lower in Boro Park than in Flatbush. In the Boro Park zip codes of 11204 and 11219, the numbers are 188 and 219, respectively. In the Flatbush zip codes of 11230, 11210, and 11234, the numbers are is 289, 254, and 199, respectively.

Below is more data on the number of deaths per 100,000 in areas of the city with a significant frum population along with other areas not known to contain many frum Jews. All figures reflect the Covid-19 death rate since the beginning of the pandemic (Note: The names assigned to the zip codes were taken from the city. Colloquially, they may be called different names. For non-Jewish neighborhoods, The Jewish Press tried to select a representative sample.)

Manhattan 10002 – Chinatown/Lower East Side: 215 10007 – TriBeCa: 57 10012 – Greenwich Village/Soho: 39 10024 – Upper West Side: 128 10025 – Manhattan Valley/Morningside Heights/Upper West Side: 195 10028 – Upper East Side/Yorkville: 73 10033 – Washington Heights (North and South): 208 10040 – Washington Heights (North): 289 10044 – Roosevelt Island: 308 10282 – Battery Park City: 251

Bronx 10458 – Belmont/Fordham University/Kingsbridge: 158 10469 – Allerton/Baychester/Pelham Gardens/Williamsbridge: 510 10471 – Fieldston/North Riverdale/Riverdale: 419

Brooklyn 11204 – Bensohurst/Mapleton: 188 11205 – Bedford-Stuyvesant (West)/Clinton Hill/Fort Greene: 110 11206 – Williamsburg (South): 186 11210 – Flatlands/Midwood: 254 11211 – East Williamsburg/Williamsburg (North and South): 142 11212 – Ocean Hill-Brownsville: 318 11213 – Crown Heights (East): 234 11219 – Boro Park: 219 11225 – Crown Heights (West)/Prospect Lefferts Gardens: 252 11230 – Midwood: 289 11234 – Bergen Beach/Flatlands/Marine Park, Mill Basin: 199 11235 – Brighton Beach/Manhattan Beach/Sheepshead Bay: 382 11236 – Canarsie: 309 11239 – East New York: 714

Queens 11354 – Flushing/Murray Hill: 569 11367 – Kew Gardens Hills/Pomonok: 165 11372 – Jackson Heights: 432 11375 – Forest Hills: 261 11415 – Kew Gardens: 318 11426 – Bellerose: 174 11432 – Hillcrest/Jamaica Estates/Jamaica Hills: 385 11691 – Edgemere/Far Rockaway: 568

Staten Island 10304 – New Dorp/Todt Hill: 449 10310 – Port Richmond/Randall Manor/West Brighton: 162 10314 – Bloomfield/Freshkills Park: 224

Asked why Cuomo has publicly targeted Orthodox Jews in light of this data, Jack Sterne, a spokesperson for the Cuomo administration, responded, “The science is clear: commonsense actions like wearing masks, avoiding gatherings, washing your hands, and limiting indoor activities can reduce the spread of Covid, and anyone who says otherwise is either uninformed or lying.”

He added, “Everyone needs to remember that we aren't fighting Covid just to prevent deaths. Even those with mild cases can face serious long-term health impacts – and these public health guidelines are designed to keep the entire state healthy. The goal now is preventing our hospitals from becoming overwhelmed so those who do become seriously ill can receive the care they need."