Poll: Likud Still Leading, Labor Weaker

A new survey conducted for Makor Rishon by the Ma'agar Mohot Institute headed by Prof. Yitzhak Katz, shows that despite police investigations and the Temple Mount metal detectors fiasco, Prime Minister Netanyahu can remain calm about his Likud party's electoral future. According to the poll, were the national elections in Israel held today, the Likud would retain its 30 seats in the Knesset.

The second largest party, according to the survey, would be Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid, which would win 20 seats, compared to its 11 seats in the current Knesset. It should be noted, however, that with at least four parties vying for the center-right votes, Lapid's voters in the polls may only be parking their vote with him, and could eventually go to another political celebrity in the same arena.

Three and a half weeks after Avi Gabbay's victory in the Labor primaries, the party would win only 16 Knesset seats, 8 fewer than it has in the current Knesset. This score is actually higher than what previous polls have been predicting – the numbers were 14 seats should Amir Peretz have won the Labor chairmanship, and 15 for Gabai.

The Joint Arab List would retain its power with 13 seats, followed by Habayit Hayehudi which would rise from 8 to 12 seats.

Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu would lose one seat to drop from 10 to 9, and Yisrael Beiteinu, headed by Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, would also lose one seat, from 6 to 5.

Meretz would retain its 5 seats in the current Knesset.

Among Haredi parties, United Torah Judaism would maintain its 6 Knesset seats. However, Shas, due to the sinking popularity of its leader Aryeh Deri, would drop from 7 to 4 seats, placing it on the precarious margin of the threshold, which is around 3.5 seats. This potential of Shas disappearing from the political map could drive a reunion with the party's ousted chairman Eli Yishai, who in the last election missed the threshold by a small margin.