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Trump’s New Regional Order

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February 4, 2025, 12 PM ET

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A High-Stakes Meeting

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington on Tuesday, making him the first foreign leader to meet the newly inaugurated president. This underscores the importance of the meeting and reflects Trump’s commitment to Israel. Senior political officials in Jerusalem indicate that the discussions will focus on Trump’s strategic vision for the Middle East, particularly in strengthening Israel’s deterrence capabilities and restoring American influence in the region following what they describe as a decline during former U.S. President Joe Biden’s tenure. Steven Witkoff, Trump’s adviser on Middle East affairs, who met with Netanyahu twice last week in Jerusalem, and Ron Dermer, Israel’s Minister of Strategic Affairs, prepared the meeting’s agenda. The key topics expected to be discussed include:

Ceasefire and Hostage Deal: Ensuring the continuation of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and securing the full release of hostages held by Hamas.
Palestinian Migration Plan: Implementing Trump’s proposal for the relocation of Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt and Jordan.
Dismantling Hamas: Strategies for the overthrow of Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip.
Normalization with Saudi Arabia: Advancing a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, forming a new moderate alliance to counter Iran’s collapsing Shiite axis.
Iranian Nuclear Threat: Strategies to neutralize Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
Israel-Hizbullah Ceasefire: Maintaining the ceasefire between Israel and Hizbullah in Lebanon.
Strengthening Israel’s Military: Enhancing Israel’s military capabilities to reinforce its strategic position.

American sources report that Trump is determined to pursue his regional strategy despite potential opposition within Netanyahu’s coalition. Trump expects Netanyahu to maintain coalition unity to ensure the implementation of his vision. The new administration views the completion of the hostage deal as a critical step in advancing Trump’s broader Middle East strategy. Senior political figures predict that Trump will pursue normalization between Israel and Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia, while safeguarding Israel’s security interests and making tangible progress on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Trump’s Challenge to the Arab World

The Arab world is closely watching Trump’s moves in the Middle East, particularly regarding the future of Gaza following the recent conflict. During his previous term, Trump successfully moved the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem despite strong opposition from Arab nations. Now, he appears equally resolute in his approach to the Gaza Strip. Arab commentators suggest that Gaza will be the proving ground for Trump’s second term. If he succeeds in executing his migration plan and stabilizing the region, he will establish himself as a leader with unparalleled influence and resolve. However, if Hamas or regional actors manage to thwart his plans, it could significantly hinder his broader Middle East vision. Two potential scenarios are being considered:

Trump enforces his migration plan, reinforcing his image as a leader willing to bypass diplomatic roadblocks and exert unprecedented power.
Opposition from the Palestinians, Egypt, and Jordan forces Trump to abandon the plan, undermining his ability to reshape the regional landscape.

Some Arab analysts predict that the fierce resistance to Trump’s migration proposal will ultimately lead to its collapse. Only time will determine whether Trump’s assertive policies will triumph or whether opposition forces will succeed in derailing his plans for a new Middle East order. {Reposted from JCFA}