The Four Israeli Elections

It’s a little risky writing a column about an election before it takes place that will be published and read only after the election. (In case you wanted proof that it was written before the election, this week I will be posting it on my Substack Tuesday morning.)

But I thought it would be helpful to offer a perspective on what the election is about (or, more accurately, on a few of the many things that the election is about) from someone who is “on the ground” but who, as a new arrival, still has more of an American mindset.

In this election, there are actually several different elections taking place simultaneously in Israel, with each reflecting a debate not only about who should govern the country but also about what Israel’s different communities stand for and what they want their future to look like.

The main debate, among non-sectoral Israelis, centers on the question of pro-Bibi or anti-Bibi. This includes Likud on the one hand and the various parties of the Gush Shinuy, the change bloc, on the other.

The change bloc includes a wide range of political views, from the left’s merger of Meretz and Labor into Yair Golan’s The Democrats; to the right-wing (with a significant ex-USSR constituency) Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Lieberman; to the center-right merger of Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett as Beyachad; and the new party Yashar, outpacing all the others, under former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot.

The debate between these parties is primarily a referendum on Bibi: Should Bibi and Likud be disqualified from leadership for their failure to prevent October 7 and for other things they have done (judicial reform, their conduct of the post-October 7 wars, etc.) that many find objectionable? Or is Bibi the best and most experienced candidate for Israel’s continuing challenges, and his opponents should not be trusted to continue confronting Iran and other security threats?

Secondarily, within the anti-Bibi change bloc, there is a fairly wide range of political views available. Bennett and Lieberman used to work for Bibi and in the past ran to his right, while The Democrats represent the left, and many centrists fall into this change bloc as well.

You might think that parties interested in finding some sort of unity between the two blocs might do well; certainly they would be well-positioned to join any government. But the two parties trying that, Benny Gantz’s Blue and White and Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha’s Reservists–New Economic Party, have had minimal success, with Gantz dropping out and the Reservists not certain to clear the minimum electoral threshold of 3.25%; if they do not clear it, the party receives no seats and those votes are effectively wasted. Political polarization is today’s political reality.

But a very significant part of Israel’s politics is not in the mainstream but in the various sectors – Religious Zionist, Haredi, and Arab – which together represent more than a third of the Knesset. Each of these sectors has its own election as well, with the various parties competing against one another but also against the non-sectoral parties. If a sector’s options are not compelling enough, voters may simply choose to vote for more mainstream national parties.

The Arab sector has traditionally had four major parties – Hadash, Ta’al, Balad, and Ra’am – but in recent years they have often merged into different electoral alliances, both in order to clear the minimum percentage for representation and to present a united front. With the Arab electorate in particular, the question is also whether it is worth voting at all, or whether not voting in protest is the best way to exercise one’s voice; a unified list might increase Arab turnout.

Running in this election is the Joint List, combining Hadash, Ta’al, and Balad, with Ra’am, the Islamist party under Mansour Abbas, running independently. Ra’am distinguished itself by incorporating (for the first time) a Jewish Zionist into its list – Yoav Segalovitz, a former deputy minister of public security and senior police officer who has worked to combat crime in Arab communities. Ra’am, which previously joined with Jewish parties as part of the coalition that made Naftali Bennett prime minister, is hopeful that it can similarly join the next government. It aims to attract voters who are looking for the same, as well as voters who support conservative Muslim values. It is also possible that bringing a Jewish Zionist into the party may encourage some Jews to vote for it. But the core question – the core election – facing Arabs is about how open to be to political partnership with Jewish Israelis.

The charedi sector has the two parties that have been in the Knesset for decades – the Ashkenazi United Torah Judaism (which unites Litvish and chassidic charedim) and the Sephardic Shas. These are supportive of a Likud-led government, with the hope and expectation that it will grant them significant funding and make permanent the exemptions from military service for charedim. But a new entrant into this election is HaTzibur HaHaredi (The Haredi Public), which represents a younger and more civically minded group of modern charedim who are interested in having charedim serve in the army (at least those who are not learning). Under the leadership of Moti Leitner, they are the first charedi party to include women on their electoral list – notably Dr. Nechumi Yaffe, a chassidic educator and academic who represents that potential direction for change. Their advertisements have interestingly focused on the claim that many people may be outwardly professing fealty to the establishment charedi parties but secretly will vote for HaTzibur HaHaredi in the hopes of a better future for their children. All polls have placed the party well below the cutoff mark, but even if they do not make it into the Knesset, the size of the protest vote against existing charedi representation could be meaningful going forward.

Most complex is the state of affairs in the Religious Zionist sector, with many small parties and multiple debates ongoing simultaneously. The past decade and a half have seen a lot of movement, as the legacy National Religious Party (Mafdal) became defunct, and a variety of different parties have tried their hand at representing the typical Dati Leumi Jew. In the past election, much of that representation went to the largely Harda”l party under Bezalel Smotrich, named HaTziyonut HaDatit (Religious Zionism), which was encouraged to merge electorally with the Kahanist party of Itamar Ben-Gvir.

This election, the two parties are running separately, with Smotrich running largely on his expansion of settlements and Ben-Gvir on his bombastic, hardline approach to security and his anti-Arab rhetoric. There are also a number of tiny, more idiosyncratic parties. These include Noam, the staunchly anti-LGBT and distinctly Harda”l party, which is running alone and will not make it into the Knesset, and Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut party, which peculiarly combines libertarianism with expulsion of Arabs and the hopes of rebuilding the Beit HaMikdash. Netanyahu convinced Feiglin and Smotrich to join on a single list, in order that those right-wing votes not be wasted. There is also the new Amcha Yisrael party of Ofer Winter, a Dati Leumi general who supports a right-wing, Bibi-led government but insists on drafting charedim and thus (presumably) rules out sitting in a coalition with the charedi parties.

How does one choose between the Religious Zionist parties? One factor is religious: depending on how Harda”l one is, one might prefer Noam or HaTziyonut HaDatit. Another factor is which issue to prioritize – settlements are Smotrich’s realm, drafting charedim is a major priority for Winter, and the Temple is a particular focus for Feiglin. And finally, there is the personality factor – Ben-Gvir is a very polarizing figure, which likely draws some voters to him (including many Sephardim and some charedim, beyond the Dati Leumi community) and alienates others. And, of course, Dati Leumi voters can vote for parties outside their sector, and many will, with the Dati Leumi Bennett an attractive option.

Who will win the election? (Or, more accurately, who already won the election?) On this I will certainly not hazard a guess. But what pre-election polls indicate is that it will likely be a stalemate, with neither the change bloc nor Likud and its charedi and Religious Zionist allies receiving the 61 seats necessary to form a government on their own. If there are no election day surprises, the next few weeks (or months) of negotiations will be key to determining whether some unique path forward can be found (a unity government? A coalition including Arab parties?) or whether it will be necessary to go to another round of elections.

Whatever the outcome, the many debates around this election – or, rather, these four elections – point to key questions facing different sectors of Israeli society about their identities, priorities, and relationship to the state.

May the Am Habocher – the Choosing Nation – choose wisely!